528
FXUS61 KCLE 191115
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
715 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS AND QPF HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FOR TONIGHT, RESULTING
IN AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ALSO INCREASING FOR
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA
TODAY, RESULTING IN CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. AT THIS POINT, INSTABILITY
WILL LIKELY BE TOO LOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
AND BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS WILL BE AND WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR. RECENT CAMS HAVE SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AXIS, AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-30 THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY 2 INCHES.
THERE ARE ALSO CONCERNS FOR TRAINING AS SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE WEST
TO EAST PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOILS ARE SATURATED
IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AFTER RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL SO
IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO FLOOD IF HEAVY RAINFALL DOES MATERIALIZE
IN THE LOCAL AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON GUIDANCE TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. WPC HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT ERO
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
THE PACE OF THE FRONT HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY AS LATE AS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS PUSH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SO THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND LIKELY SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO WARRANT AT LEAST
AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW THIS FAR
OUT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IN THE COMING DAYS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH IT'S LIKELY THAT PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE LAKE-ENHANCED.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING, WITH LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH SHOWERS AND FOR A COUPLE
HOURS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA, AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-30, THOUGH IT'S POSSIBLE THEY COULD EXTEND
FARTHER NORTH (THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS REGARD). FOR
NOW, HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TAF SITES
(INCLUDING KFDY, KMFD, KCAK, AND KYNG). THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
IS MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. NON-VFR MAY OCCUR WITH LOWER
VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY, BEFORE BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE
LAKESHORE AREAS OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF I-77 ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, AND
COULD PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN,
PRODUCING WAVES IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY MID-AFTERNOON,
ALLOWING FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFFECTING LAKE ERIE, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED INITIALLY
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY EVENING AND NORTHWEST
FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS PRODUCES WAVES IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...SAUNDERS
MARINE...SAUNDERS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page