374
FXUS61 KCLE 191659
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1259 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS AND QPF HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FOR TONIGHT, RESULTING
IN AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ALSO INCREASING FOR
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
THE POTETNIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... A COLD FRONT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY WORK SOUTH INTO
THE REGION, THEN SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ADVERTIZED TO ARRIVE TONIGHT AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. 12Z CAMS HAVE SHIFT A BIT
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF BUT THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY. FOR
NOW, WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS THINKING WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AXIS AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL GENERALLY SOUTH OF US-30 THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS PWATS INCREASE TO NEARLY 2 INCHES.
THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE TRAINING OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS AS
THEY MOVE WEST TO EAST PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOILS ARE
SATURATED IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AFTER RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL SO IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO FLOOD IF HEAVY RAINFALL DOES
MATERIALIZE IN THE LOCAL AREA. WPC HAS PLACED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT
ERO (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2... DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER
TROUGHS PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE
REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SO THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND LIKELY SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO WARRANT AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW THIS FAR OUT. WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE
COMING DAYS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NE OH
AND NW PA AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH IT'S LIKELY THAT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
BE LAKE-ENHANCED.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE SOUTHWARD PUSHING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA, AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-30, THOUGH IT'S POSSIBLE THEY
COULD EXTEND FARTHER NORTH (THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
REGARD). FOR NOW, HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TAF SITES
(INCLUDING KFDY, KMFD, KCAK, AND KYNG). THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. NON-VFR MAY OCCUR WITH LOWER VISIBILITY IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE
ON SATURDAY, BEFORE BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ALONG THE LAKESHORE AREAS
OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF
I-77 ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE LAKE TODAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN, PRODUCING WAVES IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING
TO THE EAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFFECTING LAKE ERIE, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED INITIALLY BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY EVENING AND NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 15
KNOTS PRODUCES WAVES IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAUNDERS/REYNOLDS
AVIATION...SAUNDERS/REYNOLDS
MARINE...SAUNDERS/REYNOLDS
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