217
FXUS61 KCLE 200507
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
107 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
..06Z TAF AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS AND QPF HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH FOR TONIGHT, RESULTING
IN AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ALSO INCREASING FOR
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY WORK SOUTH INTO THE REGION,
THEN SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ADVERTISED TO ARRIVE TONIGHT
AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. 12Z CAMS HAVE SHIFT A
BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF BUT THERE STILL IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS THINKING WITH THE
HIGHEST QPF AXIS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL GENERALLY SOUTH
OF US-30 THIS EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS PWATS
INCREASE TO NEARLY 2 INCHES. THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE
TRAINING OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS AS THEY MOVE WEST TO EAST
PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOILS ARE SATURATED IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AFTER RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL SO IT
WON'T TAKE MUCH TO FLOOD IF HEAVY RAINFALL DOES MATERIALIZE IN
THE LOCAL AREA. WPC HAS PLACED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT ERO (LEVEL 2
OF 4) TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF UPPER
TROUGHS PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR SO THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIKELY SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO WARRANT
AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW
THIS FAR OUT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE COMING DAYS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH IT'S LIKELY THAT
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE LAKE-ENHANCED.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR AVIATION WEATHER FOR THIS SET OF TAFS WILL
BE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AT
TOL, FDY, MFD, YNG, AND CAK. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
EARLY THIS MORNING AT MFD, CAK, AND YNG. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
TIME WINDOW FOR SOME IFR CEILINGS AT MFD BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z
THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THIS EARLY MORNING'S MVFR IMPACTS, THE
REST OF THE TIME PERIOD SHOULD BE VFR CEILINGS AND CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING
5 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AND MAY BRING SOME NON-VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH NON-VFR MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY, MAINLY IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA.
MARINE
THERE IS A LAND BREEZE THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN
OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE LAND BREEZE THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME
EAST-NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1
TO 3 FEET TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN OVER THE LAKE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL BE
CONTROLLED BY LOCAL LAND BREEZE AND LAKE BREEZE INTERACTIONS ON
FRIDAY STARTING OUT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY
BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ON SATURDAY
INTO EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS ON SATURDAY WILL SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY SUNDAY BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY BUILD TO 2-4 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. WE MAY NEED SOME HEADLINES FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS FOR THE HIGHER WAVES AND POSSIBLE
RIPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY
MONDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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