843
FXUS61 KCLE 200640
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
240 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE END TIME OF SHOWER CHANCES HAS TRENDED A LITTLE BIT LATER
FOR TODAY. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/STORMS IS INCREASING FOR THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING.
2) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE LOCAL
AREA. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z/8 AM AND POSSIBLY THROUGH AS LATE AS 15Z/11 AM AS THE
MAIN PRECIP SHIELD SHIFTS EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. SOILS ARE
SATURATED IN THE AREA OF CONCERN, WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING, ALTHOUGH AS OF NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LARGELY REMAIN JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
LIKELY CREEP NORTH LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL BE RELATIVELY ISOLATED AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES SOUTH THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY, UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF
UPPER TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS CROSS THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE PRECIP BECOMES MORE LAKE-ENHANCED SATURDAY
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE PRIMARY
TIMEFRAME TO MONITOR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL,
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MULTIPLE AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY INCLUDING THE
TIMING OF THE BEST FORCING/RESULTING RAIN CHANCES AND THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE BEST FORCING COMES INTO
THE CWA. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER FORCING/SHEAR
WILL BE OUT OF PHASE WITH THE HIGHER INSTABILITY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BY SUNDAY, ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE TYPICAL
SNOWBELT AREAS OF NE OH/NW PA WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DRYING
OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR AVIATION WEATHER FOR THIS SET OF TAFS WILL
BE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AT
TOL, FDY, MFD, YNG, AND CAK. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
EARLY THIS MORNING AT MFD, CAK, AND YNG. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
TIME WINDOW FOR SOME IFR CEILINGS AT MFD BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z
THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THIS EARLY MORNING'S MVFR IMPACTS, THE
REST OF THE TIME PERIOD SHOULD BE VFR CEILINGS AND CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHERLY THIS MORNING
5 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AND MAY BRING SOME NON-VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH NON-VFR MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY, MAINLY IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA.
MARINE
THERE IS A LAND BREEZE THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN
OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS MAY BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE LAND BREEZE THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME
EAST-NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1
TO 3 FEET TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN OVER THE LAKE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL BE
CONTROLLED BY LOCAL LAND BREEZE AND LAKE BREEZE INTERACTIONS ON
FRIDAY STARTING OUT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY
BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ON SATURDAY
INTO EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS ON SATURDAY WILL SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY SUNDAY BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY BUILD TO 2-4 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. WE MAY NEED SOME HEADLINES FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS FOR THE HIGHER WAVES AND POSSIBLE
RIPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BY
MONDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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