536
FXUS61 KCLE 210457
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1257 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..06Z TAF AVIATION FORECAST UPDATE
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF POPS
ON SATURDAY. RAISED POPS IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY. TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT SOUTH
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
2) THE NEXT STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL COME SATURDAY WITH
EXPANDING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WHILE THE AIRMASS IS UNDERGOING DRYING, AN
AGITATED CU FIELD CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM NEAR
CANTON TO BOWLING GREEN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THIS SOUTHWARD DRIFTING BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH OR PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TOWARDS 7 PM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
FOLLOWING A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED ON
SATURDAY MORNING BUT EXPECTED TO SEE CONSIDERABLE EXPANSION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY DEVELOP WITH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST AND A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN. SLOWED DOWN THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF POPS
SLIGHTLY BUT DO EXPECT 70-80 PERCENT COVERAGE SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES OF -14 TO -16C WILL PIVOT EAST OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE FRONT, SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COULD PROVIDE AN ADDED FOCUS ACROSS LAKE ERIE. A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY WITH A LOW END THREAT OF BOTH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION, IF ANY WEST TO EAST BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME STATIONARY OFF THE LAKE INTO NW
PENNSYLVANIA THEN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT COULD DEVELOP.
WILL NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BASED
ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH ALOFT.
850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 8C ON SUNDAY AND TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE
IS SOME SPREAD AMONG THE LONG RANGE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH ON MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THIS TAF UPDATE. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT MVFR FOG AT FDY
AND MFD THIS MORNING BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE
NO OTHER IMPACTS EXPECTED FOR AVIATION WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE EAST 5 TO 9 KNOTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD OR BY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY. NON-VFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
MARINE
MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NICE TODAY ON LAKE ERIE WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 1
TO 2 FEET. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AND WAVES 1 TO 3 FEET.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE 2 TO 4 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME RIP CURRENT
POTENTIAL AS WELL FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND SOME
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS MAY ALSO BE NEEDED. THERE WILL ALSO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WATERSPOUTS ON SUNDAY WITH COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVING OVER THE WARMER LAKE WATER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BE 5 TO 15
KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH WAVES 1 TO 3 FEET. CALMER WIND AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY UNDERNEATH THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page