692
FXUS61 KCLE 220752
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
352 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS NOW A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO COUNTIES POINTS
EAST INTO NORTHWEST PA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES OUTSIDE OF THE "SNOWBELT" SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND THEN MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY TURN SEVERE WITH POCKETS
OF DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN RISK. ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ARE SECONDARY THREATS.
2) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TO END THE WEEKEND AND
START THE UPCOMING WEEK. PERIODIC LAKE-ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OR STORMS ELSEWHERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
3) OUTSIDE OF LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS, A PERIOD OF DRY AND
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER BRINGS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AND PRIMARILY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE COMBINATION OF A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND MODEST WARM AIR/
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS BEEN FUELING SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY OVER LAKE ERIE BUT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OH AS OF 3 AM. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY
IS GENERALLY FAVORED TO LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH THIS
MORNING, IT MAY STILL BE ON THE SCOPE AS THE REST OF THE WORLD
AWAKENS, PARTICULARLY OVER AND CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE. WHILE IT MAY
NOT BE AN ENTIRELY DRY MORNING GIVEN THIS ACTIVITY, GREATER
SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL, INCLUDING A RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS, AWAITS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WHILE TAKING ON A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
TILT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO SLOWLY DEEPEN
WHILE DRIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS STILL
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM
WEST TO EAST, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN NORTHWEST OH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
MAXIMIZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A VORT MAX ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE AND ROTATES INTO THE
NORTHERN OH/LAKE ERIE VICINITY, THOUGH MORE MODEST FORCING IS
EVIDENT EVEN EARLIER IN THE DAY.
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING DURING THE
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME, WITH ACTIVITY PEAKING IN
COVERAGE, INTENSITY, AND ORGANIZATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT, WITH ACTIVITY QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM ALONG BOTH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND A LAKE
BREEZE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN SHORELINE NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-77
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND ACROSS NORTHWEST OH ALONG THE COLD
FRONT ITSELF. GIVEN THE INCREASING FORCING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MULTIPLE TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION, IT'S
LIKELY THAT EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SEE THE MOST WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AND GREATEST OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS, WITH SOME AREAS
LIKELY SEEING MULTIPLE ROUNDS IN QUICK SUCCESSION. WITH THAT
SAID, NEARLY ALL CAMS DEVELOP FAIRLY NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, SO ODDS ARE
THAT A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL SEE A SHOWER OR STORM
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ON THE BALANCE.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, THOUGH THE
OVERALL SETUP WILL NOT FAVOR HIGHER END CONVECTIVE HAZARDS.
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ONGOING SHOWER/THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL
SLOW HEATING TODAY, THOUGH WEAK TO MODERATE, UNCAPPED
INSTABILITY (1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE) IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO AROUND
8C/KM. SOME POCKETS OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST
DCAPE VALUES IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE. THESE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMICS, COUPLED WITH INCREASING FORCING AND MODEST DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30KT, CAN SUPPORT LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS, MOST LIKELY WITH ANY SMALL LINES OR CLUSTERS
THAT EVOLVE BUT ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE INTENSE CELLS.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE, MAINLY WITH ANY UPDRAFTS
THAT EXHIBIT TRANSIENT ROTATION WHICH IS MOST LIKELY WITHIN
STORMS ALONG/EAST OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHERE SURFACE FLOW
WILL BE MORE BACKED. WHILE THE OVERALL LOWER-END ENVIRONMENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO QUICKLY GET "MESSY" AND WORK OVER THE
ATMOSPHERE PUTS A LID ON SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY, MOST CAMS HAVE
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SOME ORGANIZATION
DEPICTED, GIVING THE SPC CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF
THE I-75 CORRIDOR (AND A MARGINAL/LEVEL 1 OF 5 FOR I-75).
IN TERMS OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, STORM MOTIONS FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WILL BE FAIRLY PARALLEL TO THE INCOMING COLD FRONT,
SO THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS AND/OR TRANSIENT TRAINING
DOES EXIST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE
NOT ESPECIALLY CONCERNING FOR EFFICIENT RAIN-RATES, THOUGH WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA FOR
REPEATED STORMS OR TRAINING CONVECTION THAT CAN STILL DROP
LOCALIZED 2-3" RAIN AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE, AREA-AVERAGE QPF WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 0.25-1.00" RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING, LEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST OH AND GREATEST ACROSS NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST
PA. THE WPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTHEAST OH
AND NORTHWEST PA IN THEIR LATEST EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE BEGINNING TO
STACK, CUT-OFF, AND SLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO SLOWLY
FILL/WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE DRIFTING TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THE
SEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS PULLED IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
LINGERING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE STACKING SURFACE LOW/
UPPER TROUGH WILL GIVE US AN EARLY TASTE OF FALL TO END THE
WEEKEND AND START THE WEEK...INCLUDING SOME LAKE-ENHANCED RAIN.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 6-9C SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY, WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES DIPPING A BIT BELOW 0C AS
500MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -20C.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL DRY OUT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS, THOUGH AS COOLER WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALIGNS OVER THE ~25C LAKE WATERS SOME LAKE-
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO NORTHEAST
OH/NORTHWEST PA. A VORT MAX AND LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
CROSS THE REGION VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, LIKELY
CAUSING ACTIVITY TO PEAK IN ORGANIZATION. WHILE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST
PA, THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LOSE ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE MORNING TROUGH PASSAGE. ANOTHER POTENT
VORT MAX AND LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL DROP IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING ANOTHER
UPTICK IN LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER AND EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ERIE FROM AS FAR WEST AS THE ISLANDS AND SANDUSKY POINTS
EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CHILLY, CYCLONIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY AND SOME LAKE EFFECT/
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIKELY. HOWEVER, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A TREND FOR ACTIVITY TO BECOME LESS INTENSE/ORGANIZED
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. A
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS MONDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER VORT MAX AND
TROUGH PASSAGE IS HINTED AT. THAT COULD CAUSE ONE LAST UPTICK
IN THE LAKE-DRIVEN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FARTHER EAST.
IN TERMS OF ANY HAZARDS, INSTABILITY WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH OVER
THE LAKE FOR SOME THUNDER/LIGHTNING POTENTIAL WITH THE LAKE-
ENHANCED ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE OVERALL SET-UP WITH A SOMEWHAT SHORTER WEST-NORTHWEST
FETCH AND SOME WIND SHIFTS THROUGH THE EVENT ISN'T OVERLY
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE, BANDED RAINFALL WITH A FLASH FLOOD RISK
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. HOWEVER, RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GRADUALLY ADD UP
(ESPECIALLY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING) WHERE LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS
ARE MOST FREQUENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
NEED TO BE KEPT IN MIND, ESPECIALLY IF PARTS OF NORTHEAST OH OR
NORTHWEST PA SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TODAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SLIGHTLY INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORE
FORM THE CLEVELAND AREA POINTS EAST-NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE, WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONGER WINDS TOWARDS AND ABOVE 500MB, ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DRY OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN DRY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DWINDLE STARTING
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY END BY TUESDAY AS DISCUSSED
ABOVE. OVERALL, THIS WILL LEND TO A TRANQUIL FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND
TOWARDS NORMAL STARTING ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SURFACE LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS MAY
ARRIVE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT ARE MOST
FAVORED ON THURSDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS FOR OUR LOCAL
AVIATION WEATHER AT AREA AIRPORTS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. THERE IS
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH A WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING
WHICH COULD IMPACT CLE BRIEFLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z WITH VCTS OR
TSRA. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE INTO NWOH
AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE PROB30 GROUPS FOR A
5 TO 6 HOUR TIME WINDOW FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 16Z THIS
AFTERNOON TO 01Z THIS EVENING. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORM
THAT IMPACTS A TAF SITE WILL LIKELY HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
TO IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND CEILINGS WITH CB AROUND 3K FEET
NEAR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
OUT OF THE NEOH AND NWPA AFTER 00Z SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND CLE, YNG, AND ERI LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL START OUT FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING 5
TO 10 KNOTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE 8 TO 12
KNOTS BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. ANY ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION MAY
HAVE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER POSSIBLE FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE IN NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
MARINE
ONSHORE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ENDS THIS EVENING, TURNING
OFFSHORE TONIGHT LESS THAN 10KTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS COMING DOWN
BELOW 1FT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
STORM CHANCES, AND PASSAGE ACROSS THE LAKE EXPECTED IN THE
EVENING. WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY 15-25KTS THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH WAVE HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO 3-6FT AND WILL LIKELY NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS. WITH
THIS BEING A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE WARMER LAKE, WATERSPOUTS
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME. WINDS EASE
AND BECOME OFFSHORE MIDWEEK, BRINGING WAVE HEIGHTS DOWN.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...77
MARINE...26
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