895
FXUS61 KCLE 051051
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
651 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED AS OF 6 AM. NO
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THUNDERSTORMS (SOME STRONG TO SEVERE) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, MAINLY
IMPACTING LOCATIONS ON A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO MOUNT VERNON.
2) SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN
BY MID- NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE REVEALS AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG A NARROW
INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH-
CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING, SUPPORTED BY MODEST NORTHWEST
SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH REMAIN
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION AS IT EXITS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 8 AM.
OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY,
USHERING IN A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE REGION.
THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
LATE SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
TRENDS FAVOR SEASONABLE AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LESS
HUMIDITY.
WILL THEN BEGIN WATCHING THE NEXT SYSTEM BY MID-NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS, FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON STORM COVERAGE.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MORE CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST OHIO MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AFFECTS
FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR TOL/FDY/MFD OVER THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST. AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH, AND ELSEWHERE AT THE OTHER
TERMINALS, EXPECTING IFR STRATUS TO FILL IN DURING THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH MVFR BR EXPECTED AS WELL. A COLD FRONT
IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA, AND CALM TO
VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5KTS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AROUND
10KTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SCT CUMULUS FL045 DURING HEATING
TODAY.
OUTLOOK...NON- VFR POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
WAVES INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AS
NORTHEAST WINDS 10-20KTS BECOME DOMINANT AND HEIGHTS 2-4FT THIS
WEEKEND. MONDAY, WINDS EASE BUT WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 2FT.
WINDS FINALLY OFFSHORE TUESDAY 5-10KTS, AND WAVE HEIGHTS A FOOT
OR LESS INTO WEDNESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...26
MARINE...26
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