000
FXUS61 KCLE 051740
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED AS OF 6 AM. NO
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THUNDERSTORMS (SOME STRONG TO SEVERE) WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, MAINLY
IMPACTING LOCATIONS ON A LINE FROM FINDLAY TO MOUNT VERNON.
2) SEASONABLE AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN
BY MID- NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE REVEALS AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG A NARROW
INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH-
CENTRAL OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING, SUPPORTED BY MODEST NORTHWEST
SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH REMAIN
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS AREA OF CONVECTION AS IT EXITS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 8 AM.
OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY,
USHERING IN A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS INTO THE REGION.
THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
LATE SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
TRENDS FAVOR SEASONABLE AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LESS
HUMIDITY.
WILL THEN BEGIN WATCHING THE NEXT SYSTEM BY MID-NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS, FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON STORM COVERAGE.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 2-5KFT CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS EXTENDING FROM NEAR TOLEDO (TOL) TOWARD
AKRON (CAK). IN ADDITION, ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT TO TERMINALS
INCLUDING VSBY OR LIGHTNING. AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SHIFT
SOUTH, DRY AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AND WILL RETURN AND
PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAREST THE LAKESHORE ON SUNDAY UP
TO 20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON- VFR POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY, NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10-20 KNOTS INTO
MONDAY. THIS WIND DIRECTION SHOULD RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN TO 2-4 FEET. THERE MAY NEED TO BE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL WEAK FLOW AND VERY MARGINAL CONDITIONS OPTED TO NOT
ISSUE ONE NOW. CALM CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE A MORE ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE INCREASED GRADIENT WITH THIS MIDWEEK
SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS AND WILL
LIKELY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL MARINE HEADLINES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04
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