098
FXUS61 KCLE 070612
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
212 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WITH GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS/STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS REGION THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES HEADING TOWARDS MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD BEEN BUILDING
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTH WILL FINALLY TRUDGE
EASTWARD AFTER KEEPING THE REGION IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FLOW TO FINALLY TURN SOUTHEASTERLY BY
TUESDAY, AND THEN AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT ADVECTION, ALL WHILE 500MB
HEIGHTS INCREASE. THOUGH THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY PRIOR TO WEDNESDAY,
EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY WARM/HUMID AIR IN THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION/THE COLD
FRONT AS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CLIMB.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WILL SEE LOW LEVEL JET, SHEAR, AND MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD. ONE THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW FOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH
NORTHERN ONTARIO/JAMES BAY/NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AS WELL. WITH THE MAIN ENERGY THAT FAR NORTH, WILL NEED
TO WATCH HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE PLACEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW LEVEL JET. AS IT STANDS, THE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD BE FURTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS UPSTATE NEW YORK/NEW ENGLAND. SO AT THIS
POINT, STILL HAVE MANY OF THE FINER DETAILS TO SORT OUT FOR THIS
SYSTEM, BUT FOR NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE LINES OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH AT LEAST A POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FOR NOW.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SCT DECK AROUND 3.5KFT MAY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH BRIEF POCKETS OF BKN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL FAVOR AN EAST TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, GENERALLY 7 TO 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP A DECENT
NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE THROUGH LABOR DAY MONDAY,
SO KEPT NE WINDS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BUILD WAVE
HEIGHTS TO 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE CENTRAL BASIN WITH A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT E TO SE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THEN SW AT 15-25 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL TURN W TO NW AND
DECREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, GOING LIGHT BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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