873
FXUS61 KCLE 080628
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
228 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD FRONT BRING SHOWERS/STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
2) HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TIMING OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FORM THE NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL/SURFACE LOW TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH
JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH AN EXTENSIVE COLD FRONT
CUTTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. TODAY MARKS A TRANSITION INTO
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS RETURN FLOW FEEDS
THE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE
REGION SHIFTS EASTWARD. INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE
GIVEN THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHILE A LAYER OF DRIER/LOWER RH AIR
AROUND 625MB AND 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASING TO 40-50KTS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT BRINGS A WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE
LINE SEGMENTS OF STORMS FORMING AND MOVING THROUGH THE CWA BEGINNING
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES ALSO VERY HIGH OVER 2 INCHES,
BUT STORMS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF FORWARD MOTION THROUGH
THE REGION, SO WHILE HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED, THEY SHOULD BE
OF RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION. STORMS EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AROUND
06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING IN THE WAKE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MODELS HINTING AT A DEVELOPING AND TRAILING TROUGH AXIS ALOFT
THURSDAY WHICH COULD SERVE TO HOLD UP THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE
COLD FRONT DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AS A
RESULT. THE RESULT IS POPS HANGING ON IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY EXITING BY ROUGHLY 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST AT THIS TIME, AND
WILL RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES KNOCKED BACK 10-15 DEGREES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
BEFORE GRADUAL WARMING ALSO RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE NOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REINTRODUCE LOW END POPS FOR THE AREA, BUT MOST
LOCATIONS LIKELY STAYING DRY DURING THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR CIRRUS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS AT MOST SITES WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON,
5 TO 8 KNOTS, WHILE A LAKE BREEZE AT CLE/ERI WILL USHER IN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OF 7 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
AT ALL TAF SITES WILL SHIFT FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT,
5 TO 7 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
CALM MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
HOLIDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS
EXPECTED. THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED WAVES OF 1-3 FEET,
HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING THOSE CONDITIONS TO BE WIDESPREAD OR
PERSISTENT. TUESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.
THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING AND BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. GIVEN OFFSHORE FLOW, MUCH OF THE LAKESHORE SHOULD SEE
1-3 FOOT WAVES, HOWEVER AS WINDS SLOWLY BEGIN TO GAIN A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT, A FEW ISOLATED WAVES OF 3-5 FEET MAY OCCUR
ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, WEDNESDAY
MAY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ALONG WITH PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...04
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