766
FXUS61 KCLE 081710
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
110 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
2) HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S
ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS AND MODEST
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OF 1000-2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
2 INCHES WHICH WILL SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE TIME WINDOW FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN
AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL OHIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30. THE FRONT AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL FINALLY CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY
SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY BUT STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA.
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR AVIATION WEATHER WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THIS TAF UPDATE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
IN OUR SKIES WITH NO IMPACT TO AVIATION. THERE WILL BE A LIGHT
LAKE BREEZE AT ERI AND CLE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR MFD, CLE, CAK, AND
ERI LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MIDDAY BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. SOME STORMS COULD CONTAIN
GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A EAST-NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND A LIGHT CHOP OF
WAVES AROUND A FOOT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS TONIGHT, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY 15 TO 20 KTS. MARINE ZONES OFFSHORE OF
CLEVELAND AND EASTWARD WILL SEE WAVE OF 3 TO 4 FEET. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY. A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY.
WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS 1 TO 3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE ON
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 1
TO 2 FEET.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
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