661
FXUS61 KCLE 090535
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
135 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
2) HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL PUSH EASTWARD
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S
ON WEDNESDAY. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS AND MODEST
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OF 1000-2000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
WHICH WILL SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. THE TIME WINDOW FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES
INTO CENTRAL OHIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN LIKELY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30. THE FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL FINALLY CLEAR
OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY
SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY BUT STALL OUT JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA.
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DETERIORATION
TO IFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FAVORED A SLIGHTLY
LATER TIMING FOR TSRA IMPACTS TO TAF SITES, THOUGH COULD SEE A
FEW SITES NEEDING TO BE BUMPED UP A COUPLE OF HOURS EAST OF I-71
AS AN EARLY ROUND OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35
KNOTS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED. TARGETED HIGHER WIND GUSTS IN THE 40
TO 50-KNOT RANGE MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
IN DIRECT IMPACTS INCREASES.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TODAY,
INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH PERIODIC GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS/FOG THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY,
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US-30 CORRIDOR. NON-VFR MAY
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A EAST-NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND A LIGHT CHOP OF
WAVES AROUND A FOOT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS TONIGHT, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY 15 TO 20 KTS. MARINE ZONES OFFSHORE OF
CLEVELAND AND EASTWARD WILL SEE WAVE OF 3 TO 4 FEET. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY. A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY.
WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS 1 TO 3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE ON
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 1
TO 2 FEET.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...77
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