767
FXUS61 KCLE 091125
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
725 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS WHILE THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BE LATER INTO
THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STORMS TO FIRE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT WITH A SEVERE POTENTIAL.
2) HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND,
BUT TURNING UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE INTO THE LOWER 70S TODAY ADDING TO THE SURFACE
BASED CAPE FOR THE REGION WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT WILL ALSO BE
WORKING ITS WAY INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA. MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL ALSO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST,
AIDING IN THE FORMATION OF A SUBTLE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN OHIO TOWARDS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS
CONVECTION FIRES, DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SURFACE LOW COULD AID IN
ENHANCEMENT OF IT AND/OR ADD TO ADDITIONAL AREAL COVERAGE HEADING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR THE EASTERN CWA. OFF THE SURFACE, LOW
LEVEL JET ENHANCEMENT ALSO OCCURS AFTER 21Z TODAY WHILE 0-6KM SHEAR
INCREASES TO 45-55KTS IN THIS SETUP, SUPPORTING LINE SEGMENT/QLCS
FORMATION. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY LAYER OF AIR BETWEEN
AROUND 600-650MB WITH THE CAPE STRETCHING INTO AND ABOVE THIS LAYER,
ADDING A MECHANISM TO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS AND A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
COUPLED WITH THE LOW MID LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. GOING BACK TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT, THIS ADDS A BACKING ELEMENT
TO THE SURFACE WINDS AND ADDS TO THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY VARIABLE, SO
ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS THE CONVECTION EXITS
OVERNIGHT, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST KEEPING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES GOING IN
THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OHIO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT WEAKNESS IN
THE UPPER LEVEL MASS FIELDS BRINGS BACK CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
LATE SATURDAY AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN BECOMES
MORE UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN. LOW END POPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AND GREATER IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
AROUND THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. AFTER COOLER END OF THE WEEK
CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE MID 80S BY TUESDAY
WHILE DEWPOINT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE BACK INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH DETERIORATION TO
NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS TIMING FOR
TSRA IMPACTS AT TAF SITES TODAY GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TSRA
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY, THOUGH STRONG WIND GUSTS (35+
KNOTS) ARE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT IMPACT TAF SITES.
TARGETED HIGHER WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50-KNOT RANGE MAY BE
NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACTS
INCREASES.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING FOR A PERIOD OF NON-VFR
VSBYS/CEILINGS FOLLOWING THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR VSBYS/CEILINGS AT MOST SITES FOR
THE TIME BEING, BUT LOWER IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE
UPDATES.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TODAY,
INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH PERIODIC GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY, GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US-30 CORRIDOR. NON-
VFR MAY RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A EAST-NORTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND A LIGHT CHOP OF
WAVES AROUND A FOOT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS TONIGHT, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY 15 TO 20 KTS. MARINE ZONES OFFSHORE OF
CLEVELAND AND EASTWARD WILL SEE WAVE OF 3 TO 4 FEET. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY. A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY.
WINDS NORTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS 1 TO 3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE ON
FRIDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 1
TO 2 FEET.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...26
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