662
FXUS61 KCLE 101132
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
732 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE BIT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30 IN OHIO. SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLOODING HAZARDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
2) HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH AND STALL OUT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, THE AIR
MASS WILL MODERATE A LITTLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEW
POINTS FALLING A BIT INTO THE 60S AND MAYBE UPPER 50S. HOWEVER,
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN HUMID AND
RELATIVELY UNSETTLED WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES AND DEW POINTS
IN THE 70S. THIS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MORE SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BULK OF
THE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BUILD. HOWEVER, SOME ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH A LIMITED
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS WITH THE
SHORTWAVE, SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING HAZARDS REMAIN VERY LOW
AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE REGION, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR 36 HOURS OF DRY, COMFORTABLE WEATHER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SATURDAY
AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS BEHIND FRIDAY'S HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS
WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM FRONT TO LIFT BACK OVER THE AREA,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S AND DEW POINTS BACK IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH ACTIVITY CURRENTLY EXPECTED DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS, THERE IS A LOW END THREAT FOR A STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM, AS THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS TO MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER, DETAILS MAY CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES, ESPECIALLY IF TIMING
IS FASTER OR SLOWER OR IF THE WAVE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN LIFTING
THE WARM FRONT NORTH. ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT TRYING TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST, EXTENDING FROM
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CANADA. RETURN FLOW IS
AGGRESSIVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY TRY TO KEEP
THIS FEATURE NORTH, AS THE MAIN FRONTAL SUPPORT QUICKLY DEPARTS
TO THE NORTHEAST. IF THE FRONT DOESN'T REACH THE AREA, THE AREA
MAY END UP STAYING DRY WITH ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MIXED-BAG OF VFR, MVFR, AND IFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG/MIST.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG/MIST TO DEVELOP AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR VSBYS
FOR THIS UPDATE. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-30, THOUGH NON-
VFR IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING,
4 TO 7 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
INTO THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
FAVORING A WEAK NORTHWEST DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND/OR PATCHY FOG
FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE LAKE
TODAY. WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL VEER FROM THE WEST TO THE
NORTH WITH TIME TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AND INCREASE A BIT TO 10 TO
15 KTS. WAVES COULD PICK UP A BIT WITH THE LONG FETCH FLOW OVER THE
LAKE, BUT IT MAY JUST RESULT IN AN ELEVATED SWIMMING RISK OVERNIGHT.
THE HIGH MOVES EAST FOR FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR EASTERLY FLOW.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING BACK ACROSS THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT
WILL ATTEMPT TO CROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY, BRINGING WESTERLY FLOW
AGAIN TO THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE GETS
STUCK NORTH OF THE LAKE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK TO BE TOO CONFIDENT ON THE MEAN WIND DIRECTION ON THE
LAKE. OVERALL, NOT EXPECTING ANY MARINE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE SWIMMING RISK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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