605
FXUS61 KCLE 101904
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
304 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT HAVE INCREASED A BIT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 30 IN OHIO.
2) HUMID CONDITIONS WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN ON
SATURDAY WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA, MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF US-30 IN OHIO. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER
AND SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SO SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE (20-40 PERCENT) THROUGH
TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA SINCE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN DEVELOPMENT. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG (LOCALLY DENSE IN
SPOTS) WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM BOTH HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES ON
FRIDAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS
IN THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL THERE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
LIKELIHOOD OF DAYTIME CLOUD COVER AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THE BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING. DEW POINTS
WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY
SO IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID. ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
AS A COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER FAVORED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY AS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ANY RESULTING IMPACTS/HAZARDS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WELL DEVELOPED CU FIELD AND ERODING LOW CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING
HAS YIELDED MVFR CEILINGS AT KCLE, KYNG, AND KERI. THE OTHER TAF
SITES WILL REMAIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S. CEILINGS WILL ERODE
AT MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. NEAR CALM WINDS AND COOLING WILL
ALLOW RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP AT SITES. WILL INSERT A TEMPO
GROUP WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITION FROM 08Z TO 12Z DUE TO
MIST/FOG.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON,
4 TO 7 KNOTS AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR FAVORING A WEAK
NORTHWEST DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND/OR PATCHY FOG
FRIDAY MORNING. NON-VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY INCREASE BY A FEW KNOTS AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OVER THE LAKE AT SOME POINT SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIMITS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
BASINS AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AT THE VERY LEAST, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
MODERATE SWIM RISKS. WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEEPENS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...FZ
MARINE...15
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