124
FXUS61 KCLE 111758
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
158 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SOME FOG WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION. THERE IS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
CHANCES ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A PAIR OF FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS SOME
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
2) WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND ALLOW
FOR WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR
SATURDAY, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A STORM TO
BECOME STRONGER WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN DURING
THE PEAK HEATING HOURS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR
SUNDAY, THERE IS GROWING CONSENSUS ON A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
AND SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE LIFT TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE LESS
SUITABLE AFTER SATURDAY'S ACTIVITY AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LOWER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS TRENDING MORE
UNSETTLED AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE GROUND OF A
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CANADA. THE RIDGE
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE AREA DRY ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL BACK OFF A
BIT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME OF THE ENERGY
OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO ENTER THE GREAT LAKES, COINCIDENT WITH A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE WARM AND HUMID AND AGAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR TRENDS AS IT
APPROACHES CLOSER.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND LOWER
TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND MVFR EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADING MOST
TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MOST RAIN
SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF KTOL, KFDY, AND KERI, SO LIMITED THOSE
SITES TO VSCH, BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER THE TAF PERIOD IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN SE TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY S TO SW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NON-VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SUPPORT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LAKE TODAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST,
WINDS OVER THE LAKE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE LAKE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE
LAKE ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR ONSHORE FLOW TO
RETURN TO THE BASIN. WINDS COULD BE BRIEFLY STRONG ENOUGH TO
MERIT SOME ELEVATED WAVES AND MODERATE SWIMMING RISK. THE FRONT
WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AND ELEVATED NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING
WAVES IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
BASIN ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FLOW COULD BE STRONGER ON TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. AT A MINIMUM, THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
BRIEF WINDOWS FOR MODERATE SWIMMING RISKS ON THE LAKE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY AND THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY, THERE COULD BE
WINDOWS FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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