752
FXUS61 KCLE 170623
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
223 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-224.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
A FRONT OSCILLATES ABOUT THE OHIO VALLEY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY,
POTENTIALLY LINGERING IN EAST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OHIO INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SLOW-MOVING FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, INCLUDING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHEAST OH. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
FLOODING REMAINING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. ANOMALOUS PWS ON THE
ORDER OF 200+% OF SEASONAL NORMS REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS, COMBINED WITH VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS, PROVIDE
AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE PERSISTENT OR TRAINING
ACTIVITY. THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST/WEST-
CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT THE GREATEST COVERAGE
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
TODAY AS WELL, PRIMARILY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
NEAR/SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 224 INTO PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST OH. GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT RATHER
MARGINAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
ESPECIALLY FROM 21Z TO 03Z. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST PAST 03Z,
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE WANING LATE INTO THE EVENING.
THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY INCREASE
A BIT AFTER DARK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME, PARTICULARLY FOR
NORTH-CENTRAL OH.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SUBTLE EPISODIC WOBBLES IN THE FRONT
POSITION INTO THE DAY THURSDAY, VERY LITTLE PRONOUNCED MOVEMENT
IN THE MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTH. THE
FORECAST IS TRENDING DRIER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN AND
NORTHEAST OH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH DRIER
AIR AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THE FRONT WILL SURGE BACK TO THE NORTH INTO THE DAYTIME
SATURDAY, BRINGING ANOMOLOUSLY-HIGH PWS BACK NORTH WITH IT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES, PARTICULARLY BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
S/W ENERGY WORKS E THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WIDESPREAD
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO
LINGER INTO THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.
THE MIN CONCERN FOR THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT. AREA PWS REMAIN HIGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES
OF RAINFALL ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN OHIO. WPC HAS
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL OH FOR SATURDAY (ENDING 12Z SUNDAY).
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
CONDITIONS AT 06Z VARY FROM LIFR WITH STRATUS TO VFR WITH A
MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. OVERALL STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WHILE INLAND SITES LIKE
MFD/CAK/YNG COULD SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS,
ALLOWING FOR THESE AREAS TO QUICKLY FILL IN WITH A VERY LOW
STRATUS. CEILINGS WILL TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME.
MVFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPERIENCING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION. IT DOES
SEEM THAT THE MOST ORGANIZED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BETWEEN 12-18Z WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
AT FDY. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE A MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED TO ADD
THUNDER TO SOME TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
AT REMAINING TERMINALS AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH BETWEEN 09-15Z
BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE BOTH LIGHTER AND MORE INTERMITTENT
SO MAINLY ONLY INCLUDE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTS THE AREA. SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL START
OFF WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING, THEN TRANSITION TO
WEST OR NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
FLOW IS BECOMING NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 10-15
KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TO
12-18 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WHICH MAY BRIEFLY LEAD
TO CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS NEARSHORE ZONES IN THE CENTRAL
BASIN. FOR FRIDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY, WINDS WILL WAVER BETWEEN
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY AT 12-18 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY
BUILD TO 2-4 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE ZONES IN THE EASTERN
BASIN ON SUNDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW 15-20 KNOTS. NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 25KTS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NUMEROUS ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAKE
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...10
MARINE...13
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