830
FXUS61 KCLE 170702
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
302 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS IT REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS A
FRONT WAVERS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING AS NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES
ALOFT MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE. BOTH REFS AND HREF COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY ENSEMBLE
PAINTBALLS INDICATE TWO PRIMARY WINDOWS WHERE SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE INCREASE. THE FIRST WINDOW WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING INTO
DAYBREAK AS A WAVE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. AREA OF COVERAGE WILL
INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OHIO. ANOTHER WAVE ENTERS
THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE STORMS MAY DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN INDIANA TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN ANY STORM REACHING SEVERE LIMITS TODAY AS BEST INSTABILITY
REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BY THIS EVENING, THE FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE ENTERS FROM THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
THIS EVENING BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN BY FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE LOW WILL
THEN DRAG A COLD FRONT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR THIS TIMEFRAME
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST AXIS OF QPF
REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A SWATH FROM CHICAGO/MILWAUKEE
EAST TOWARDS DETROIT.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
CONDITIONS AT 06Z VARY FROM LIFR WITH STRATUS TO VFR WITH A
MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. OVERALL STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WHILE INLAND SITES LIKE
MFD/CAK/YNG COULD SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS,
ALLOWING FOR THESE AREAS TO QUICKLY FILL IN WITH A VERY LOW
STRATUS. CEILINGS WILL TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME.
MVFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPERIENCING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION. IT DOES
SEEM THAT THE MOST ORGANIZED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BETWEEN 12-18Z WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
AT FDY. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE A MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED TO ADD
THUNDER TO SOME TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
AT REMAINING TERMINALS AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH BETWEEN 09-15Z
BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE BOTH LIGHTER AND MORE INTERMITTENT
SO MAINLY ONLY INCLUDE SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTS THE AREA. SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL START
OFF WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING, THEN TRANSITION TO
WEST OR NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
FLOW IS BECOMING NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 10-15
KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TO
12-18 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WHICH MAY BRIEFLY LEAD
TO CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS NEARSHORE ZONES IN THE CENTRAL
BASIN. FOR FRIDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY, WINDS WILL WAVER BETWEEN
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY AT 12-18 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY
BUILD TO 2-4 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE ZONES IN THE EASTERN
BASIN ON SUNDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW 15-20 KNOTS. NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 25KTS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NUMEROUS ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAKE
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...10
MARINE...10
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page