184
FXUS61 KCLE 200746
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
346 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER, HAVE OPTED TO LOWER QPF
TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO BETTER REFLECT THE DWINDLING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT. SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
GENERAL TOTALS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 0.3-0.8 INCHES IN MOST PLACES WITH
THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIPITATION NOW JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
CWA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED FLOODING
CONCERNS. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM NEAR
TOLEDO TOWARDS MOUNT VERNON AND AREAS WEST.
2) FIRST TASTE OF FALL ARRIVES THIS WEEK WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, A WARM FRONT WAS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH OF
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY, HOWEVER LOOKING AT RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE STAYED SOUTH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT,
THE BULK OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS REMAINED OUT OF THE AREA WITH
THE HIGHEST TOTALS REACHING TOLEDO AT ALMOST 1" SO FAR. THIS WARM
FRONT MAY NUDGE A BIT MORE NORTH TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ALONG IT TOWARDS THE CWA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THERE REMAINS AN
ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP, HOWEVER THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION MODE SHOULD REMAIN MORE
STRATIFORM TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, HAVE OPTED TO LOWER QPF WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE TO GENERALLY BE 0.3-0.8 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
WITH A HIGHER AXIS AROUND 1 INCH EXTENDING FROM TOLEDO SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS MOUNT VERNON. SOME OF THESE AREAS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
DECENT BIT OF RAIN ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SATURATED
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, GIVEN RECENT LOW LEVELS ON AREA
RIVERS AND THE MORE STRATIFORM TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THE AREA SHOULD
MOSTLY HANDLE THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL, TODAY WILL BE QUITE
A DREARY DAY AND WILL ALSO MARK THE TRANSITION INTO A WEEK OF FALL
LIKE CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF NWPA WHICH MAY EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE SYSTEM TODAY DEPARTS EAST, A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NUDGE SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A SURFACE
TROUGH LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PLACEMENT OF THESE SYSTEMS
WILL LEAVE THE CWA RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE. THIS POSITIONING WILL ALLOW
FOR A COOLER AIRMASS TO ARRIVE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
60S THIS WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES, BUT SHOWER POTENTIAL RAMPS BACK UP ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST, NUDGING THE
SURFACE HIGH NORTH AND PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. THIS HIGH WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IN ADDITION, THE POSITIONING OF THE
AREA ON THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION. WHILE CEILINGS RANGE FROM VFR TO IFR AT 06Z, THE
TREND WILL BE TOWARDS IFR BY DAWN AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND BE HARD TO TIME OVERNIGHT.
RAIN WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA BETWEEN 10-19Z WITH MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING IN AN ARC ACROSS FDY/MFD BUT
COULD EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS TOL/CLE/CAK. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. IFR WILL BE FAVORED IN NW OHIO
WHILE CEILINGS WILL TRY TO LIFT TO MVFR TOWARDS YNG/ERI THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES MAY TRY TO SCATTER OUT AT ERI
AFTER 00Z MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THAT.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RESIDING IN THE AREA. MOST SITES WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO A
NORTHWEST THEN NORTHERLY WIND AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH TODAY.
WINDS AT TOL/CLE/ERI MAY EXCEED 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH INCREASING FLOW ON LAKE ERIE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL INITIALLY ALLOW
FOR WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS LOW SHIFTS EAST AND MOVES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
20-25 KNOTS IN THE WESTERN BASIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL INITIALLY ALLOW
WAVES TO BUILD TO 4-6 FEET. ON MONDAY MORNING, LAKE ERIE WILL FALL
UNDER A GRADIENT BETWEEN A CANADIAN HIGH TO THE NORTH AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY RAMP UP ON MONDAY TO BE SUSTAINED AT 20-30 KNOTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO 5-
7 FEET, APPROACHING 10 FEET AT TIMES. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE HIGH IS
ABLE TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO
CALMER CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE OF LAKE ERIE BEGINNING TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS AND
STRONG WINDS, THERE IS AN INCREASE IN RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL SO A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY DANGEROUS AND PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID GOING ONTO THE
LAKE FOR THE START OF THIS WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR OHZ003-007-009>011.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LEZ147-148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LEZ149.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...10
MARINE...04
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