435
FXUS61 KCLE 201842
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
242 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED RAINIER FOR TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING DURING THIS TIME,
BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA.
2) A FIRST TASTE OF FALL ARRIVES THIS WEEK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWERS HIS AFTERNOON, ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY
THE TIME RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA, THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE
HUGGING THE CWA BORDER OR BE JUST TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL MAKE
THE RAINFALL FORECAST SOMEWHAT TRICKY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY OCCUR TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT HEAVY RAIN CLIPS THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE CWA (MAINLY SOUTH OF THE US-30 CORRIDOR).
ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATION OF AROUND AN INCH (MAYBE LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS) IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN ZONES IF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ENDS UP BEING A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. IF HEAVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES IN THE LOCAL AREA,
THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR
AND HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
IS NEEDED. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND THE
GREATEST RISK OF FLOODING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGHER THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE ISOLATED MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BY TUESDAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE CHILLIEST
NIGHT OF THE WEEK WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE 40S AT INLAND
LOCATIONS. WHILE PERIODIC AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THURSDAY, POPS WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF
AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NW OH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKESHORE OF NW OH.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW CEILINGS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CHALLENGE THE REST OF
TODAY INTO MONDAY, ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS. CURRENT CIGS RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES WHERE RAIN IS FALLING AT KCLE,
KCAK, AND KYNG. EXPECT THE STEADIEST RAIN TO EXIT NE OHIO AND
NW PA BY 22Z, WITH MAINLY JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS, MIST, AND MVFR
CIGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE NEXT ROUND OF
STEADIER RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO IMPACTING KTOL AND
KFDY AFTER 22Z WITH CONTINUED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS, BUT
EXPECT THIS ROUND TO SLIDE MORE TO THE SOUTH, SO HAVE STEADIER
RAIN MOVING INTO KCLE, KMFD, KCAK, AND KYNG LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH KERI STAYING DRIER. VISIBILITIES WILL
DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR IN THE STEADIEST RAIN IN ADDITION TO THE
LOW CIGS. ONCE THIS BATCH OF RAIN DEPARTS, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND CONTINUED LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG A KFDY TO KYNG LINE.
N TO NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO 10-20 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL INITIALLY ALLOW
FOR WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS LOW SHIFTS EAST AND MOVES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
20-25 KNOTS IN THE WESTERN BASIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL INITIALLY ALLOW
WAVES TO BUILD TO 4-6 FEET. ON MONDAY MORNING, LAKE ERIE WILL FALL
UNDER A GRADIENT BETWEEN A CANADIAN HIGH TO THE NORTH AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AS A RESULT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY RAMP UP ON MONDAY TO BE SUSTAINED AT 20-30 KNOTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS WILL RESULT IN WAVES BUILDING TO 5-
7 FEET, APPROACHING 10 FEET AT TIMES. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE HIGH IS
ABLE TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO
CALMER CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE OF LAKE ERIE BEGINNING TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS AND
STRONG WINDS, THERE IS AN INCREASE IN RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL SO A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY DANGEROUS AND PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID GOING ONTO THE
LAKE FOR THE START OF THIS WEEK.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ003-007-009>011.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LEZ147-148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LEZ149.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...04
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