177
FXUS61 KCLE 210532
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
132 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED RAINIER FOR TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING DURING THIS TIME,
BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA.
2) A FIRST TASTE OF FALL ARRIVES THIS WEEK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWERS HIS AFTERNOON, ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY
THE TIME RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA, THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE
HUGGING THE CWA BORDER OR BE JUST TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL MAKE
THE RAINFALL FORECAST SOMEWHAT TRICKY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY OCCUR TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT HEAVY RAIN CLIPS THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE CWA (MAINLY SOUTH OF THE US-30 CORRIDOR).
ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATION OF AROUND AN INCH (MAYBE LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS) IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN ZONES IF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ENDS UP BEING A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. IF HEAVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES IN THE LOCAL AREA,
THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE PROLONGED PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR
AND HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
IS NEEDED. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND THE
GREATEST RISK OF FLOODING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGHER THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE ISOLATED MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BY TUESDAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE CHILLIEST
NIGHT OF THE WEEK WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE 40S AT INLAND
LOCATIONS. WHILE PERIODIC AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THURSDAY, POPS WILL PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NW OH
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKESHORE
OF NW OH.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA AS
A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THERE ARE A FEW
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SHOWERS WHERE
CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED BETWEEN 2-3KFT. AS THESE SHOWERS INCREASE
IN COVERAGE TODAY, EXPECT A WIDER SWATCH OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR DIMINISHED CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF TERMINALS, HOWEVER EVEN AT THESE TERMINALS, THE
STRATIFORM NATURE OF THE RAIN HAS MADE IT QUITE DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WORST CONDITIONS. DUE TO THIS,
OPTED TO HANDLE MOST SHOWER POTENTIAL AND RESULTING CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPO/PROB30. NEAR THE END OF THIS PERIOD, SHOWERS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST, BUT MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL RAMP UP TO 10-15
KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FOR LAKESHORE TERMINALS AND THOSE ALONG THE I75
CORRIDOR. WIND GUSTS SHOULD WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE AND CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS BEGIN IN THE WESTERN
BASIN AT 00Z/8 PM WITH HEADLINES SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE LAKE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK AT
AROUND 25 KNOTS MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY THROUGH AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS MAY
PERIODICALLY APPROACH 30 KNOTS, PRIMARILY IN THE OPEN WATERS.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW 15 TO 20 KNOTS MAY REQUIRE AN
EXTENSION OF HEADLINES IN THE WESTERN NEARSHORE ZONES INTO
THURSDAY. EAST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 15 KNOTS BY LATE
THURSDAY.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ003-
007-009>011.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ012-
089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ147-148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ149.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...04
MARINE...15
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