081
FXUS61 KCLE 211129
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
729 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOODING IN NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT THIS MORNING.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
FOR AREAS WITH SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO END THE WEEK AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS SEASON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE LOCAL AREA RESIDES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SHALLOW
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS. WHILE THE HEAVIER AREA OF RAIN IS EXITING TO THE
SOUTHEAST, SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN AN ARC FROM NEAR MARION
TO AKRON WHERE LIFT CONTINUES ALONG A TIGHTLY PACKED BAROCLINIC
ZONE AT 850MB. THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY
AND LIFT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH 60-70% POPS TODAY
ALONG THIS AXIS WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL GENERALLY AROUND A
QUARTER INCH. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE POPS WILL BE LOW OR DRY
TOWARDS THE ASHTABULA/ERIE LAKESHORE. A BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OFF LAKE ERIE WITH LAKESHORE AREAS AND PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST OHIO SEEING WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25+
MPH.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING WITH LIFT
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
NORTH UP THE OHIO/PENNSYLVANIA BORDER. EVENTUALLY MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
ARRIVES AND MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY ON TUESDAY. LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ARE FOCUSED DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE IN NORTHEAST OHIO WHERE
GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY MAINTAIN
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR LOW 20-40 POPS IN THE
EAST WHERE LIFT CONTINUES ALONG THAT LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER.
BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY POPS
RAMP UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES WITH A RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE. THE
00Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
AND IS THEREFORE DRIER. WILL LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT WHICH KEEPS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS,
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS OUR INTERIOR
COUNTIES WHERE POPS ARE GREATER THAN 60%. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SOLIDLY IN THE 60S WITH THE COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR ARRIVES BRINGING AN END TO
PRECIPITATION WITH GRADUAL CLEARING. THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL
SUPPORT THE COOLEST LOWS WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON BEGINNING
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INLAND LOWS SOLIDLY IN THE 40S WITH LOW 40S
FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NW PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL REPEAT FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE TRENDING JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON WINDS AND ABILITY TO DECOUPLE BUT CAN
CERTAINLY EXPECT A CHILL IN THE AIR.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE
OPTIMISTIC IN RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE. CURRENTLY MUCH OF THE AREA
IS EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY MVFR WHERE BKN
CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN TO 2-3KFT. THESE CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
BOUNCE AROUND TODAY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR FOR ALL INLAND
TERMINALS WHERE THE CHANCE FOR PERSISTENT SHOWERS LINGERS. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE LIGHT SHOWERS AT
TERMINALS, HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN USING TEMPO/PROB30 TO HANDLE
THE PERIODS OF POTENTIAL RAIN. NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD,
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR
HEIGHTS WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL RAMP UP TO 10-15
KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FOR LAKESHORE TERMINALS AND THOSE ALONG THE I75
CORRIDOR. WIND GUSTS SHOULD WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOCAL AREA RESIDES BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
ALL LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE ZONES AND ADJACENT BEACH AREAS THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR ALL OHIO WATERS. WAVES WILL TEND TO BE 5-9 FEET ON
THE CENTRAL BASIN. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONG, THERE
WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NEAR THE LAKE ERIE ISLANDS WHERE
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW.
WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND DECREASE TO 10-20 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY AGAIN ON THURSDAY AHEAD
OF STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE AND WILL MAINTAIN CHOPPY CONDITIONS
IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BUT
DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ003-
007-009>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ149.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...04
MARINE...10
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