362
FXUS61 KCLE 212350
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
750 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON, ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO DEPICT A
STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY, THUS THUNDER CHANCES FOR OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN LIMITED. OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO, WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING, BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. CAN'T RULE
OUT RAIN PERSISTING ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHWEST OHIO
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH, THOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AND LIGHT ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD AND PERHAPS A MORE STEADY RAIN MAY RETURN LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE
APPROACHES THE AREA, WITH AN INCREASING ARC OF 850 MB E TO SE
WINDS TRANSPORTING MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 50S AT
TIMES AND LOWS IN THE 50S OR UPPER 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY,
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE DEPARTING CHILLY AIR MASS COULD RESULT IN
A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR SOME LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO DEVELOP,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS INLAND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, THOUGH 40S
SHOULD BE MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE. THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AS
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST IN TERMS OF CEILING AND VISIBILITY
FLUCTUATIONS CONTINUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STEADY RAIN OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NE OHIO, AS WELL AS NW PA, IS BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS
RAIN TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 05Z, AND THAT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF VFR AT KTOL, KCLE, AND KERI TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, MIST AND OCCASIONAL FOG WILL LOCK IN ACROSS SOUTHERN
TERMINALS TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN, SO WENT A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE ON KEEPING LOW CIGS AND VIS AT KMFD, KCAK, AND KYNG.
KFDY IS A WILDCARD SINCE IT DID NOT RAIN AS MUCH THERE, SO KEPT
THEM MVFR TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE REALLY LOWERS TUESDAY. IN
GENERAL, WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS SHOULD SPREAD NORTH AND
WEST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(BUT IMPROVED VIS), WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS VARIABILITY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, SO
POCKETS OF VFR ARE STILL POSSIBLE. TAF AMENDMENTS WILL CONTINUE
AS NEEDED.
NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-20 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH PERIODS
OF GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
RESULTING IN WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 7 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
CHOPPY ON THURSDAY AS NORTHEAST FLOW ONLY GRADUALLY IMPROVES TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, THOUGH WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH THE
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
GIVEN THE LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS LAKE ERIE, CAN'T
RULE OUT A SMALL CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
BASIN OF THE LAKE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ003-
007-009>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ149.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...KAHN
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