860
FXUS61 KCLE 220731
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
331 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
TODAY. RAISED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OHIO ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
2) DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO END THE WEEK WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WHILE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHEAST OHIO. ONLY A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE COMING OFF THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE IN A
REGION OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT ARE SHALLOW AND MAINLY
VISIBLE ON THE DTW TERMINAL RADAR. OTHERWISE, THERE IS A LACK
OF DEEP MOISTURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BUT VEERING FLOW IN THE
MOIST LOW LEVELS MAY SUPPORT PATCHY DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS FROM AKRON TO YOUNGSTOWN. LATER THIS AFTERNOON THE SURFACE
TROUGH RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND MOISTURE INCREASES AT 700MB
ACROSS NE OHIO. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL RETURN ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO WHERE LIFT CONTINUES ALONG
THE 850MB FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. IN ADDITION NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND IN NORTHWEST OHIO
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
TONIGHT WILL START OFF RELATIVELY QUIET BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SEEN OVER IOWA THIS MORNING DEEPENS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EXPAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
CLOSES OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED INITIALLY ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR THEN DRIFTING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT
MOVES OVERHEAD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THROUGH
THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL EXPAND SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST
COAST. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THURSDAY WITH LOTS OF SUN OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE COOL, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN UPPER 40S(INLAND) TO NEAR
50(LAKESHORE) FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A SIMILAR PATTERN AS OBSERVED ON MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO TUESDAY AS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. IN ADDITION, MANY TERMINALS ARE ALREADY NON-VFR
THIS MORNING WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF THESE
CONDITIONS. THERE IS ISOLATED AREAS OF 4SM OR LESS WITH MIST
BEING REPORTED, BUT GIVEN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED
MUCH IN TERMS OF FOG. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE AVIATION FORECAST GIVEN THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF
SHOWERS AND UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTH LOW CEILINGS WILL
PUSH. HAVE OPTED TO HANDLE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH TEMPO/PROB30. OVERALL, AVIATION CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND FLIGHT CATEGORIES. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS KERI WHICH SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME GUSTY
IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
WILL OCCUR NEAREST THE LAKESHORE AND ALONG THE I75 CORRIDOR.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE TODAY AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES AND A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR A HIGH SWIM RISK
REMAIN IN EFFECT. GIVEN THE STRONG CONVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN
BASIN, THERE IS ALSO A LOW END THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS. WINDS
BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY START TO DECREASE ON
THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL END FOR
THE PENNSYLVANIA WATERS AT 11 PM WHILE REMAINING IN EFFECT
THROUGH 11 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE OHIO WATERS. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR WAVE HEIGHTS ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLY FOR AREAS EAST OF CLEVELAND.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. CONDITIONS WILL BE
CHOPPY AND MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT AND BEACH HAZARDS CRITERIA. THE
HIGH WILL BE MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES WITH
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ003-
007-009>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ149.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...04
MARINE...10
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