825
FXUS61 KCLE 221132
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
732 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
TODAY. RAISED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OHIO ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
2) DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO END THE WEEK WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WHILE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHEAST OHIO. ONLY A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE COMING OFF THE WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE IN A
REGION OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT ARE SHALLOW AND MAINLY
VISIBLE ON THE DTW TERMINAL RADAR. OTHERWISE, THERE IS A LACK
OF DEEP MOISTURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING BUT VEERING FLOW IN THE
MOIST LOW LEVELS MAY SUPPORT PATCHY DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS FROM AKRON TO YOUNGSTOWN. LATER THIS AFTERNOON THE SURFACE
TROUGH RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND MOISTURE INCREASES AT 700MB
ACROSS NE OHIO. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL RETURN ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO WHERE LIFT CONTINUES ALONG
THE 850MB FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. IN ADDITION NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND IN NORTHWEST OHIO
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
TONIGHT WILL START OFF RELATIVELY QUIET BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SEEN OVER IOWA THIS MORNING DEEPENS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EXPAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE TROUGH
CLOSES OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED INITIALLY ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR THEN DRIFTING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT
MOVES OVERHEAD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH QUICKLY THROUGH
THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL EXPAND SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST
COAST. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THURSDAY WITH LOTS OF SUN OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE COOL, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN UPPER 40S(INLAND) TO NEAR
50(LAKESHORE) FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PREDOMINATELY NON-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS LOW CEILINGS MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS
RESULT IN DIMINISHED VISIBILITIES AND CLOUD DECKS BELOW 3KFT.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE THE NORTHERN MOST TERMINALS
NEAREST THE LAKE WHERE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE COULD
RESULT IN PERIODIC VFR CONDITIONS. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT STILL GIVEN THE STRATIFORM AND
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION SO CONTINUE TO HANDLE MOST
POTENTIAL WITH TEMPO/PROB30.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME GUSTY
IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
WILL OCCUR NEAREST THE LAKESHORE AND ALONG THE I75 CORRIDOR.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE TODAY AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES AND A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR A HIGH SWIM RISK
REMAIN IN EFFECT. WAVES OF 5 TO 9 FEET ARE FORECAST WITH PEAK
WAVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. GIVEN THE STRONG CONVERGENCE
OVER THE WESTERN BASIN, THERE IS ALSO A LOW END THREAT OF
WATERSPOUTS. WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY
START TO DECREASE ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL END FOR THE PENNSYLVANIA WATERS AT 11 PM WHILE
REMAINING IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE OHIO
WATERS. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR WAVE HEIGHTS ON WEDNESDAY AND
MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLY
FOR AREAS EAST OF CLEVELAND.
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. CONDITIONS WILL BE
CHOPPY AND MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT AND BEACH HAZARDS CRITERIA
FOR A BRIEF WINDOW ON THURSDAY EVENING. THE HIGH WILL BE MORE
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES WITH IMPROVING
MARINE CONDITIONS.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ003-
007-009>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ149.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...04
MARINE...10
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