589
FXUS61 KCLE 221801
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
201 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUD COVER AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE
EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT. INITIALLY, PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED
TODAY, GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE BETTER FORCING. HOWEVER, THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE WEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, RESULTING
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY
THIS ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE I-71 CORRIDOR AS THE LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A NARROW SWATH OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY > 500
J/KG. THE WEAK FORCING IN PLACE SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
LESS THAN AN INCH, THOUGH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY
IN THUNDERSTORMS, REMAIN POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 50S AT
TIMES AND LOWS IN THE 50S OR UPPER 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY, HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE DEPARTING CHILLY AIR MASS COULD RESULT IN A
FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR SOME LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO DEVELOP,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS INLAND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, THOUGH 40S
SHOULD BE MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE. THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BY SUNDAY
AND PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW CEILINGS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN TAF CHALLENGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE TROUGH HANGS BACK OVER THE AREA.
MOST SITES ARE SOLIDLY MVFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF IFR TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE SLOWLY
SPREADS NW ACROSS THE REGION. THE BULK OF THIS PRECIP AND IFR
WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS (KMFD, KCAK, AND KYNG), BUT IFR
COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT OTHER SITES TOO, JUST TOO LOW OF A
PROBABILITY TO PUT IN THOSE TAFS. A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
POCKETS OF MIST IS THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE REDUCED VIS IN MIST AT KMFD, KCAK, AND KYNG.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BE OVERTAKEN BY YET ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS
THAT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND THIS
WILL CAUSE MVFR/IFR TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS
AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS, RESULTING IN WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 7 FEET.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY ON THURSDAY, PERHAPS EVEN BRIEFLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA, AS NORTHEAST FLOW ONLY GRADUALLY
IMPROVES TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, 10 TO 15
KNOTS.
GIVEN THE LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS LAKE ERIE, CAN'T
RULE OUT A LOW CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
INTO THIS EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
BASINS OF THE LAKE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ003-
007-009>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ149.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...KAHN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page