084
FXUS61 KCLE 222353
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
753 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) DRY AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUD COVER AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE
EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT. INITIALLY, PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED
TODAY, GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE BETTER FORCING. HOWEVER, THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE WEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, RESULTING
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY
THIS ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE I-71 CORRIDOR AS THE LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A NARROW SWATH OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY > 500
J/KG. THE WEAK FORCING IN PLACE SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
LESS THAN AN INCH, THOUGH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY
IN THUNDERSTORMS, REMAIN POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S OR PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 50S AT
TIMES AND LOWS IN THE 50S OR UPPER 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY, HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE DEPARTING CHILLY AIR MASS COULD RESULT IN A
FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR SOME LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO DEVELOP,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS INLAND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, THOUGH 40S
SHOULD BE MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE. THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BY SUNDAY
AND PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE/MIST IS SLOWLY PIVOTING NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER
NW. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04-06Z BRINGING IFR CIGS AND VIS.
KTOL, KFDY, AND KERI WILL MISS THE WORST OF IT, WITH KERI
MISSING IT ENTIRELY. BEHIND THIS ROUND OF RAIN, MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND POCKETS OF LOW VIS IN MIST WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. THE
LOWEST CIGS AND VIS WILL OCCUR AROUND KMFD, KCAK, AND KYNG,
WHILE KERI SHOULD STAY ENTIRELY VFR. MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY,
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL START TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE MORNING, AND THIS COULD INCLUDE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION
WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE SHOWERS INCREASING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH PROB30 GROUPS
FOR LOWER CIGS AND VIS IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
OCCUR. IN GENERAL, CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR TO IFR WEDNESDAY, WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER CONDITIONS AT KFDY AND KTOL AND COMPLETELY DRY
AND VFR AT KERI.
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE ERIE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS
AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS, RESULTING IN WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 7 FEET.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY ON THURSDAY, PERHAPS EVEN BRIEFLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA, AS NORTHEAST FLOW ONLY GRADUALLY
IMPROVES TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, 10 TO 15
KNOTS.
GIVEN THE LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS LAKE ERIE, CAN'T
RULE OUT A LOW CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
INTO THIS EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
BASINS OF THE LAKE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ003-
007-009>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ149.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...KAHN
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