309
FXUS61 KCLE 231734
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
134 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL END A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OHIO TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
2) THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THE
COOLEST OVERNIGHT LOWS SO FAR THIS SEASON ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT FROM THE MIDWEST
TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THIS FEATURE WITH CONTINUED EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH
THROUGH 700MB. ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMPS UP ALONG THE 305K SURFACE
AND SHOWERS WILL EXPAND FROM CAK, ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO
TOWARDS NORTHWEST OHIO. WHILE LOW LEVELS REMAIN STABLE,
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AND WILL HOLD ONTO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF
THE RAIN HAS TRENDED FASTER OVER ABOUT THE LAST 48 HOURS AND
ALSO SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE EARLIER PLACEMENT. LOCALIZED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS WHILE MANY AREAS RECEIVE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR ANOTHER DAY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING TOWARDS NW PA WHERE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
DIGS TO THE SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON
THURSDAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE.
THE AIRMASS UNDERGOES CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND SKIES TRANSITION
TO MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER A COUPLE DEGREES FOR
HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, PARTLY DUE TO THE COOLER OVERNIGHT
LOWS. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DIP INTO THE
LOW 40S ON THURSDAY NIGHT(INLAND LOCATIONS) AND MID 40S ON
FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS IT SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
LOTS OF SUN AND WE GRADUALLY TREND TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY FALL.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MIXED-BAG OF MVFR AND VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING FROM EAST TO WEST. ISOLATED
THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE,
LIGHT TO STEADY RAIN MAY IMPACT FDY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR.
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, 8 TO 12
KNOTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS OF 20 TO 22 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR FAVORED THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
FLOW ON LAKE ERIE WILL BE MORE EASTERLY TODAY THEN VEER TO
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. WAS ABLE TO LOWER THE SWIM RISK FROM HIGH
TO MODERATE FOR LAKE AND ASHTABULA COUNTIES TODAY AS WAVES
SETTLE INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. SWIMMERS SHOULD STILL
CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION AS SOME CURRENTS MAY PERSIST.
OTHERWISE, EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE
ERIE INTO TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND A HIGH SWIM RISK WITH WAVES AS HIGH AS 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE
OPEN WATERS. WE STILL EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO DROP THE REMAINING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS BY 10 PM TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY WITH
WINDS BACKING TO NORTHEASTERLY AGAIN. WAVES WILL COME UP FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH CHOPPY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ALL THE
WAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE LIGHT BY MONDAY.
BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ003-007-009.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ010-011.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ142>148.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...10
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