929
FXUS61 KCLE 232318
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
718 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PRIOR FORECAST OR MESSAGING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LINGERING SHOWERS DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
2) THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THE
COOLEST OVERNIGHT LOWS SO FAR THIS SEASON ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH GRADUALLY
SHIFTS WEST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. THESE FEATURES CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL OH. THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ADVECTS IN DRIER AIR. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING WEST WHILE DIMINISHING AND EVENTUALLY ENDING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CLEAR FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH FOG NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO A BIT OF AN EASTERLY BREEZE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE 40S ACROSS PARTS OF INTERIOR NORTHEAST
OH/NORTHWEST PA TO THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS NORTHWEST OH AND
NEAR THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF TRANQUIL/DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS
TO BE WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MONDAY WILL BEGIN REBOUNDING ON TUESDAY AS WE GET INTO RETURN
FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH. LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE
WILL SEE SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO THE 40S
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COOLEST NIGHTS WILL BE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS
EAST OF I-79 IN NORTHWEST PA DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S THURSDAY
NIGHT, ALONG WITH PERHAPS IN SOME ISOLATED SPOTS ACROSS
INTERIOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND AROUND THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. DEW
POINTS LOOK A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM TO REALLY BE CONCERNED ABOUT
A WIDESPREAD OR IMPACTFUL FROST THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY SO
DO NOT HAVE ANY INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THE MOMENT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAINLY VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH VFR TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT FDY ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
STILL TRACKING SOME SHOWERS NEAR THE I-71 CORRIDOR, THOUGH
POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT TAF IMPACTS REMAINS LOW. ISOLATED THUNDER
REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS WELL, THOUGH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION.
WINDS REMAIN OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING, 7 TO 11
KNOTS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR FAVORED THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FLOW HAS SUBSIDED SLIGHTLY TO 10-20KT FOR MUCH OF TODAY, BUT MAY
INCREASE A FEW KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
THEN BE IN THE 10-15KT RANGE (ENOUGH TO BUILD 2-3 FOOT WAVES AT
TIMES GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY FETCH) THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
MAY AGAIN BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15-20KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL GIVE THE END TIMES OF THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT/
BEACH HAZARD HEADLINES BEFORE SENDING THE FULL PACKAGE, THOUGH
IN GENERAL THE IDEA IS CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW CRITERIA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WAVES MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE BACK TOWARDS
HEADLINE CRITERIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BETWEEN THE ISLANDS
AND WILLOWICK. BEYOND THAT HEADLINES APPEAR UNLIKELY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THOUGH AS MENTIONED ABOVE WAVES WILL KICK UP
TO 2 TO 3 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AMID ONSHORE FLOW.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ003-007-
009-010.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>148.
DISCUSSION...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...SULLIVAN
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