805
FXUS61 KCLE 071827
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
227 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS IT REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUES INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
GLIDE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
OUTSIDE OF LOW-END POPS IN LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LEADING TO PROLONGED DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY LEADING
TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
FALL INTO THE LOW 50S TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CHILLIER ON
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE
LATER THIS WEEK ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE REMMANTS OF
ISAIAS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY
AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST IS DRY FOR MONDAY BEFORE AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING
RENEWED RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TONIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM THIS FRONT BUT WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT WITH GUSTS AT ALL TERMINALS
OF 20-25 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. OVERNIGHT WINDS
WILL SLOWLY BACK TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER THIS PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
OPTED TO EXTEND THE TIMING OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO 3-6 FEET AT TIMES IN THE FAR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
BASINS AS NORTHWEST WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS
REMAIN ONSHORE AT 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
TURNING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND DIMINISHING TO 8-12 KNOTS.
WINDS TURN WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY INTO MID- WEEK WITH
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MARINE HEADLINES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ144-
145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...04
MARINE...13
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