852
FXUS61 KCLE 080816
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
416 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RELATIVE HUMIDIY HAS TRENDED DOWN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY
AND FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN RAIN ON SUNDAY AND HAVE LOWERED
HIGH TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY FALL WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND BREEZY WINDS IN NORTHWEST OHIO WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
2) THE REMNANTS OF HURRICASE ISAIAS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
MOST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OUT OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO OHIO
THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS, GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TEND TO DROP TO 25-30 PERCENT
IN NORTHWEST OHIO WHICH COULD SUPPORT FIRE SPREAD IF ANY WERE TO
DEVELOP. FUELS ARE CONSIDERED TO BE A LITTLE TOO WET TO NEED A
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE. THE FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 40S
AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS REACHING
THE UPPER 30S. THIS SHOULD BE JUST SLIGHTLY TOO WARM FOR FROST
FORMATION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SEVERAL AREAS ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AND OVER TO CLEVELAND COULD REACH 80 DEGREES ON
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HURRICANE ISAIAS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CARRIBEAN
AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH TO THE ALABAMA COAST BY LATE FRIDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AFTER MAKING LANDFALL BUT IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD NORTH AHEAD OF THE LOW, WITH
RAIN BEGINNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE HEAVIEST SWATH
OF RAIN IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 30. FORECAST RAIN
AMOUNTS RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TOWARDS TOLEDO TO JUST OVER AN INCH
CLOSER TO CENTRAL OHIO. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW END THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO. WE WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON DOWNSLOPING WINDS TOWARDS ERIE, PA AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WHICH COULD EXCEED 35 MPH, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL POTENTIAL BUT AT THIS
TIME FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. GIVEN THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD NATURE OF
THE RAIN, TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FOR
SUNDAY. WE WILL SEE A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT TRY TO WRAP NORTH INTO THE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH COULD REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. POPS REMAIN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT EXTREME NORHWEST
OHIO.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 8 TO 14 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 10 KNOTS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
00Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR IS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS CONTINUE ON CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WHILE STARTING TO DECREASE ON THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEST OF
AVON AS WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ENDS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OFF OF CLEVELAND AT 4 PM AND
AT 8 PM FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS EAST OF WILLOWICK. A BRIEF INCREASE
IN WINDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MAY HAVE A FEW HOUR WINDOW WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR NEEDING ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM. AFTER THAT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. WE WILL BE MONITORING THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ147>149.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...15
MARINE...10
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