643
FXUS61 KCLE 091750
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
150 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) 1) PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF ISAIAS.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, RESULTING IN PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR AS THE
REMNANTS OF ISAIAS GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR WHERE
TOTALS MAY RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE LATEST REFS
GUIDANCE, ALBEIT SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE, ALSO INDICATES A LOW
PROBABILITY (20 TO 30%) FOR A NARROW SWATH OF 3 INCHES OF RAIN,
THOUGH THIS IS LIKELY THE "WORST CASE" SCENARIO. THE OVERALL
THREAT FOR FLOODING IS STILL CONSIDERED TO BE LOW DUE TO RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW STREAM/RIVER LEVELS.
IN ADDITION TO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN, A POTENT SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO THE REGION, WITH WIND GUSTS
PRIMARILY IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPING
AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF WEAK INSTABILITY MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SURFACE DEW
POINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOW 60S WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE
AMPLE MID-LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE, APPROACHING 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT
TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
A DRY AIRMASS AND A LIGHT BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY PRECLUDE
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IN GENERAL, LIGHT WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH THESE WINDS INCREASING TO
7-12KT LATER SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT CLE, A WEAK
LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WINDS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST LATER THIS
EVENING. WINDS AT CLE WILL THEN BE CLOSE TO A CROSS WIND AT
130-150 DEGREES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS SHOULD NOT CROSS BACK OVER 150 DEGREES
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, THOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING A PERIOD OF NON-VFR
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT IN NORTHEAST OH/NORTHWEST PA. NON-VFR POSSIBLE DUE
TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COLD FRONT AROUND TUESDAY.
MARINE
GENERALLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ON SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS
MOVE NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, THOUGH NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
MARINE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, 10 TO 15 KNOTS, AS ISAIAS MOVES EAST OF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY, 15 TO 20 KNOTS,
SHIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED BEHIND THE FRONT.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KAHN
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...KAHN
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