878
FXUS61 KCLE 101805
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINDS HAVE TRENDED UP ALONG THE LAKESHORE AREAS OF ERIE COUNTY
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ISAIAS. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE ERIE LAKESHORE WHERE GUSTS
OF 35-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH A MIX OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. ISAIAS MADE LANDFALL LAST EVENING AS A HURRICANE
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR DESTIN AND HAS SINCE CONTINUED TO
TRACK NORTH WHILE TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH ISAIAS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
BETWEEN 11 PM AND 4 AM AND WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO. STREAMFLOW VALUES ARE CURRENTLY LOW AND
WE EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOST OF THE RAIN WITHOUT MANY
FLOODING CONCERNS. PEOPLE SHOULD CLEAR DRAINS OF LEAVES AND
DEBRIS TO REDUCE FLOODING POTENTIAL. THE NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT TO WEST VIRGINIA BY 18Z SUNDAY. MID LEVEL DRY AIR DOES
WRAP NORTH OF THE LOW DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO SOME BREAKS IN PRECIPITATION. DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO FILL
BACK IN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
HIGHER RAIN RATES WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA TO
THE EAST BY 8 PM SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY SATURDAY
EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A LOW LEVEL JET
OF 35-45 KNOTS WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AND COULD RESULT IN
STRONGER WIND GUSTS ALONG THE ERIE PA SHORELINE. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED DOWNSLOPING AND
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY BEFORE THE STEADY RAIN
BEGINS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. ELSEWHERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD TEND TO PEAK AROUND 30
MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70-80 DEGREE RANGE. LOW PRESSURE SLIDES EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 DEGREES WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED GENERALLY EAST OF
I-71. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY, USHERING IN THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO START NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A SHIELD OF RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE FROM
ISAIAS LIFTS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS WITH MORE INTENSE
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR
VIS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND/OR WITH A STEADIER PERIOD OF RAIN,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS MFD, CAK, AND YNG. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO MVFR
AS SHOWERS BECOME WIDESPREAD EARLY SUNDAY, WITH MOST SITES
LIKELY TO DROP TO IFR AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
TIMING OF THE DROP TO IFR CEILINGS IS LESS CONFIDENT AT CLE,
ERI, AND YNG DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS, AND HAVE A SLOWER CEILING
DROP AT THOSE SITES COMPARED TO THE REST. KEPT CLE LOW MVFR
UNTIL 18Z WHEN WINDS BEGIN SHIFTING MORE E-NE WITH THIS UPDATE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT MORE EAST-NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5-10KT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT, INCREASING SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DUE TO DOWNSLOPING, SOME 25-30KT WIND GUSTS CAN OCCUR AT ERI
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
IFR CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
NON-VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
MARINE
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS. CONDITIONS WILL BE JUST BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AND WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE AS THEY BACK TO NORTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
WE HAVE TWO MORE WINDOWS OF ENHANCED WINDS THIS WEEK. THE NEXT
WILL BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
NORTH WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASIN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
ANOTHER STRONGER WINDOW OF WINDS OCCURS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS COULD REACH 30 KNOTS AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
AGAIN.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...SULLIVAN
MARINE...10
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