160
FXUS61 KCLE 110541
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
141 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINDS HAVE FURTHER TRENDED UP ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM CUYAHOGA
TO ERIE COUNTY, PA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AT TIMES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE SLIGHTLY
DECREASED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS. WINDS
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM CUYAHOGA TO ERIE
COUNTY, PA, WHERE GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
2) UNSEASONABLE WARMTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY, BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
3) COOLER AND UNSETTLED THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
QUIET AND PLEASANTLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND GRADUALLY DEPARTS EAST. THIS WILL START TO
STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
AND THE REMNANT LOW OF ISAIAS, SO SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 OR 25 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE BY MID EVENING, ESPECIALLY WHERE DOWNSLOPING IS
FAVORED IN A SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SET UP FROM NORTHERN CUYAHOGA
COUNTY TO NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY, PA. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL JUST
CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM ISAIAS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A
STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO THE WEST COAST DEEPENS
MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS
MID-LEVEL JET WILL START TO EJECT THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS ENE AT
A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. THE REMNANT LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND WILL LIFT ACROSS WEST VIRGINA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. IN
TERMS OF WINDS, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND AN AREA OF 35-40 KNOT 850-925 MB
WINDS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONDITIONS BECOMING FAIRLY SATURATED
RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z, AND THIS COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY WEAKENING
WIND FIELD WILL LIMIT MOST GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE WHERE THE SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SET UP LEADS TO DOWNSLOPING
FROM NORTHERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY TO NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY, PA. THIS
WILL LOCALLY INCREASE WIND GUSTS, SO GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE THERE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z, WITH PEAK GUSTS
IN THE 08 TO 18Z SUNDAY WINDOW. WINDS WILL TURN N TO NE BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RAPIDLY DIMINISH. IN
TERMS OF RAIN, THE SHIELD OF STEADY RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, QPF IS TRENDING LOWER DUE TO A SLIGHTLY
FARTHER SE TRACK OF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING
FARTHER NORTH. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTIVE BANDING IS STILL
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG A KCAK TO KYNG LINE, BUT MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM. THERE REMAINS AN
UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNT OF QPF VARIABILITY IN HREF AND RRFS
GUIDANCE AND INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS, INCLUDING RUN TO RUN FLIPS, SO
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. THE
OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN LOWER, SO USED A BLEND OF NBM AND WPC FOR
THE FINAL QPF FORECAST WHICH IS A CLOSE COMPROMISE OF HREF AND
RRFS ENSEMBLE QPF. THIS GIVES A FEW TENTHS TO 0.25 INCH IN NW
OHIO, 0.50 TO 0.75 INCH IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO, AND 0.75 TO 1
INCH IN NE OHIO (EAST OF I-77) AND NW PA. PROBABILITIES FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE GREATEST NEAR THAT KCAK TO KYNG LINE.
THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND LOW STREAM FLOWS COMBINED WITH DRYING
GROUND SHOULD PREVENT ANY FLOODING EXCEPT FOR AREAS THAT MAY
HAVE BLOCKED DRAINS OR CULVERTS. THE SHOWERS WILL START TO MOVE
IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 03Z, WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN IN THE
06Z TO 15Z SUNDAY WINDOW. THE RAIN WILL BE MORE INTERMITTENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.
AFTER DRYING OUT SUNDAY EVENING, IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED, LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH AND SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS BACK ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS IS SHOWN BY A FEW HREF MEMBERS, SO ADDED LOW POPS
SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END BY MONDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY FLEX OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
EVOLVES INTO A CUT OFF LOW. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL SUPPORT DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR
HIGHS TO REACH THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE IN NW OHIO MONDAY AND
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN NE OHIO AND NW PA. MOST OF THE CWA WILL
SEE MID 70S TO LOW 80S TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS TRENDING SLOWER
AS THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE WEST KEEPS MID/UPPER RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE FRONT
SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO PUSH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY, SO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE
SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT THUNDER GIVEN THE
WARMTH, BUT A LATER TREND SHOULD LIMIT ANY STRONG/SEVERE
POTENTIAL. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS THOUGH GIVEN
FAVORABLE SHEAR.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS IT RUNS INTO LINGERING MID/UPPER RIDGING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SEASONABLY COOLER AND
DRIER OVERALL AIR, BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE BOUNDARY NEARBY. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM MAY
COME FRIDAY AS A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM MID/UPPER TROUGH
CAPTURES THE OLD WESTERN CONUS CUT OFF LOW AND POTENTIALLY LEADS
TO A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD
BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND POTENTIALLY THE
COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IF
IT MATERIALIZES.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE CURRENTLY VFR THOUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW
CEILINGS PROGRESS NORTHWARD. THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD
AS CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR BY 10-12Z FOR MOST TERMINALS.
KCLE AND KERI SHOULD TAKE LONGER TO DROP DOWN TO NON-VFR
CEILINGS WITH DOWNSLOPING ASSISTING IN KEEPING IT ELEVATED.
KCLE WILL DROP BY AROUND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. THERE'S LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHEN KERI WILL DROP TO NON-VFR, THOUGH SHOULD STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE CEILINGS DROP TO IFR, IT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS THERE WILL BE PERIODIC
RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING THEM DOWN. IFR VISIBILITY
IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS, THOUGH SHOULD NOT
LAST LONG WHEN IT OCCURS.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST, 080-130, AT 8-13 KNOTS ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THE MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING TO AROUND 5-10
KNOTS. KERI WILL HAVE A MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY, 130-150, WIND
AND WITH DOWNSLOPING, COULD SEE GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KNOTS
THROUGH 17Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO BE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST, 020-050, DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN 5-10 KNOTS.
AFTER 00Z, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY, 310-340,
AND WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED IN LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT
MONDAY. NON-VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
MARINE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ERIE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS PASS TO THE SOUTH.
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED, WITH PERIODS
OF 20-25 KNOTS POSSIBLE FROM AVON POINT TO RIPLEY. ISSUED
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TONIGHT FROM AVON POINT TO
RIPLEY, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CRITERIA TO BE REACH AT
TIMES BETWEEN ABOUT 02 AND 10Z. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE
SUNDAY MORNING, BECOMING NE AT 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON THEN
NW AT 5-10 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEFORE SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE BEFORE A PERIOD OF POSSIBLY
STRONGER NE WINDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ146>149.
DISCUSSION...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...23
MARINE...GARUCKAS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page