100
FXUS61 KCLE 131937
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
337 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
HAS INCREASED NEAR THE LAKESHORE FROM ABOUT TOLEDO TO LAKE, GEAUGA,
AND ASHTABULA COUNTIES IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHWARD. THESE COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY.
2) STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WILL BRING RAIN, STRONG WINDS, AND FALLING TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF 18-19 C,
SUNNY SKIES, AND GUSTY SW WINDS HAVE LED TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 80S, WITH EVEN ISOLATED UPPER 80S IN NW OHIO! THIS
WILL SET UP A VERY WARM AND BREEZY EVENING.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TO THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF
THE LAKE FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EMANATING OUT OF A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION CROSSES THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A WEAK SURFACE WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS SURFACE WAVE AND 130+ KNOT H3 AND 60-70
KNOT H5 JETS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE FORCING TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. THE 12Z SUITE OF HREF
CAMS HAVE BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A CLUSTER OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDER DEVELOPING IN SE LOWER MICHIGAN
AND NW OHIO OVERNIGHT THEN PROGRESSING ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND THE
ADJACENT LAKESHORE COUNTIES OF NORTHERN AND NE OHIO IN THE
08-11Z TIMEFRAME. THIS IS NOT SHOWN NEARLY AS MUCH BY THE RRFS,
BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED FORCING TIED TO THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER
WAVES TRAVERSING THE SAGGING BOUNDARY SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION,
ESPECIALLY WITH LINGERING WARMTH OVERNIGHT FROM TODAY'S RECORD
HIGHS (LOWS IN THE MID 60S). THE KEY WILL BE LAKE ERIE. HREF
AND RRFS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO SURFACE OR
MUCAPE OVERNIGHT, BUT THE WARM LAKE ERIE WATERS AVERAGING 18C
WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY. THIS COULD HELP
THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE LAKE AS
IT MOVES EAST, AND IF SO, THE PRESENCE OF 50 KNOTS OF WESTERLY
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR COULD CAUSE STRONG TO SUB SEVERE WINDS NEAR
THE LAKESHORE. THIS PROBABILITY IS LOW OVERALL AND CONDITIONAL
ON IF THE CLUSTER CAN GET A BOOST OVER THE LAKE, BUT IF ANY
CONVECTIVE WINDS OCCUR, THE MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE FROM
ROUGHLY JUST EAST OF TOLEDO THROUGH THE ISLANDS TO LAKE,
GEAUGA, AND ASHTABULA COUNTIES WHERE THE WEAK INSTABILITY OVER
AND NEAR THE LAKE WILL AID IN MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF EMBEDDED THUNDER WITH HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTHWARD, BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND THE
BEST JET SUPPORT PROGRESSING EAST OF THE REGION WILL PREVENT
ANYTHING ORGANIZED, WITH MAINLY LOW-IMPACT RAIN EXPECTED. THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDER WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE US-30 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL QPF
WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO UP TO 0.20 IN MOST
AREAS, BUT SOME 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR ALONG AND
SOUTH OF US 30 IF ANY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/THUNDER CAN
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY RAIN WILL TREND FARTHER SOUTH AS
THE DAY WEARS ON, WITH SLOW DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EXPECTED.
ALL AREAS WILL BE DRY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PUSHES THE FRONT
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AS THE CANADIAN HIGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ALREADY RETREATS THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE OLD FOUR
CORNERS CUT OFF LOW PHASING WITH AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER TROUGH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THE RESULT WILL BE A
DEEP, NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
DYNAMIC TROUGH, STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THE DEEPENING LOW
LIFTING ACROSS UPSTATE NY DURING THE DAY.
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, RAIN WILL LIFT BACK INTO THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT GENERATE A RAIN SHIELD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
LIFTING WARM FRONT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE WARM
SECTOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING (GUSTING UP
TO 30 KNOTS) BENEATH A 50+ KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET, BUT SHOWERS WILL
FILL BACK IN AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A LOW-TOPPED
SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT IF AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY CAN BE
REALIZED SINCE THE STRONG WIND FIELDS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. NEVERTHELESS, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT, THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND STRONG POST-FRONTAL
PRESSURE RISES WILL LEAD TO STRONG WINDS FRIDAY MORNING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS (50
MPH) IS INCREASING FRIDAY, SO WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED, ESPECIALLY IN NW OHIO AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
ADDITIONALLY, THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NW FLOW WILL
LEAD TO LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS IN NE OHIO AND NW PA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING,
BUT LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN NE OHIO AND NW PA, AND
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DIPPING BELOW -5C (SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BE COLDER), GRAUPEL IS POSSIBLE, AND THE FIRST SNOW FLAKES OF
THE SEASON COULD ALSO OCCUR IN SOUTHERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES OF NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DRY OUT ALL AREAS, BUT THE COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE SEASON SO FAR IS LIKELY, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 30S. SOME UPPER 20S ARE POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR NE OHIO AND
NW PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD FROST AND FREEZE THAT
SHOULD END THE GROWING SEASON IN MANY AREAS. MODERATING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH
DRIFTS EAST.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF UPDATE. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL MAINTAIN -SHRA IN
THE TAF BUT FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE VCTS OR
SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY/CEILINGS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AT CLE, YNG, AND ERI.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL RELAX AFTER 23Z FROM
THE WEST AROUND 5 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST OR
NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...INTERMITTENT NON-VFR IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL
NON-VFR IN RAIN IS LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
SW WINDS WILL BE NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE DECREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS AND VEERING TO NW
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS THE LAKE. NNW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 5-10 KNOTS MOST OF WEDNESDAY, TURNING NE AND
INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASINS.
AFTER A LULL LATE THURSDAY, SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30
KNOTS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE LAKE
AHEAD OF A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THESE WINDS WILL TURN NW
FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT, INCREASING TO
25-35 KNOT GALES. GALE FORCE WINDS, POTENTIALLY UP TO 40 KNOTS,
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BUILD WAVE
HEIGHTS TO 8-12 FEET AT TIMES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, SO THE
FIRST GALE HEADLINES OF THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY,
BECOMING SW AT 15-20 KNOTS BY SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR RECORD HIGH VALUES ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. RECORDS FOR
OCTOBER 13 ARE LISTED BELOW FOR THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE LOCATIONS.
DATE TOLEDO MANSFIELD CLEVELAND AKRON YOUNGSTOWN ERIE
10-13 83(1975) 84(1969) 82(1969) 82(1969) 83(1969) 83(1983)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
DISCUSSION...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...77
MARINE...GARUCKAS
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