319
FXUS64 KCRP 151200
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
600 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGE:
- COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE REMAINS OUR GREATEST CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT BACK
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY, RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ONLY HAVE A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON SATURDAY BUT
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER LAND TO WARRANT ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S, INCREASING A FEW DEGREES TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY.
TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL ALSO BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING, RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S INLAND TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.
COASTAL FLOODING WILL REMAIN OUR GREATEST CONCERN THROUGH
SATURDAY DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE, GENERALLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OCCURS TODAY UNDER A FULL
MOON AND THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW WITH INCREASING SWELL PERIODS
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WILL AID IN HIGHER WATER LEVELS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- HAZARDOUS MARINE AND COASTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK
- LOWS IN THE 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK FALLING TO THE 40S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
-THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (50 TO 60%) FOR WIND GUSTS PAST 40 MPH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AND GALES IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE A MORE FALL WEATHER PATTERN...OVER THE
WEEKEND THE MOISTURE INCREASES TO OVER 1.50"-2.00" PWAT VALUES,
WHICH REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY JUST PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WITH THE INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE ARE
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES ON SUNDAY (25-50%), SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND 20-
35%, THEN 50-85% ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONT. MOST OF THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AND IN THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS, AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO INTRODUCE DRY AIR OVER
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE BRUSH COUNTRY, KEEPING THE
PROBABILITIES LOW (<20%). ONCE THE FRONT IS THROUGH, THE COOL HIGH
PRESSURE, STARTING IN THE PAC NW BEGINS TO PUSH THE COOL AIR SOUTH
INTO TEXAS, ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE
TEMPERATURES WITH THIS COOL AIR GETS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER. MONDAY
THE LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE MID 60S, TUESDAY NIGHT
(THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS), WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE 40S. THE PROBABILITIES OF GETTING BELOW 40° ON
THOSE NIGHTS ARE BETTER THAN 55% FOR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND
SOME OF THE NORTHERN BRUSH COUNTRY. SO UPPER 30S ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WINDS...THERE ARE TWO TIMES WHERE THERE IS CONCERN. THE FIRST IS
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP, AND THE MODELS ARE EXPECTING WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY (FREER). WHILE MOST OF THE
WIND GUSTS FROM THE NBM ARE EXPECTED TO BE 35-40 MPH, THERE IS A 50-
60% CHANCE FOR WIND GUST PAST 40 MPH. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW
FREQUENT? IF THE MODELS BRING IN A STRONGER GRADIENT A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED. THE SECOND TIME IS POST FRONTAL ONCE THE COLD AIR
SPILLS OUT ON THE COASTAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY GUSTS 30-35 MPH LOOK
LIKELY AND GUSTS PAST 40 MPH ARE AROUND 30% CHANCE. THE WIND ISSUE
THEN BECOME A MORE MARITIME ISSUE WITH THE WARM WATERS AND CHILLY
OVERNIGHT LOWS, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE MIXING WITH A 25-30 KNOT
WIND AT 925 MB AND 850 MB.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES STAY IN
PLACE AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SHIFT BACK
SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS
AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF AND A
FEW HOURS BEYOND. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE, HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WE'LL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON IN FUTURE PACKAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
WEAK EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT ONSHORE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY, STRENGTHENING TO 10-15 KNOTS. ONSHORE FLOW
BECOMES MODERATE TO STRONG AND WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD
OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS, AND POSSIBLY GALES. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS STRONG TO VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED
SEAS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
TO REACH GALE FORCE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 64 84 70 / 0 0 0 10
VICTORIA 81 55 85 65 / 0 0 0 20
LAREDO 84 60 85 67 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 83 57 87 65 / 0 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 80 66 84 70 / 0 0 0 20
COTULLA 83 58 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 82 60 85 67 / 0 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 77 71 80 74 / 0 0 0 20
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
TXZ245-342>347-442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EMF/94
LONG TERM....JSL/86
AVIATION...EMF/94
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