264
FXUS64 KCRP 161140
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
540 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGE:
- COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND DURING HIGH TIDE
PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 5-15 MPH AND HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. MOISTURE WILL START INCREASING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY,
NEGATING ANY RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, PWATS WILL CLIMB TO OVER 1.5"
(>75TH PERCENTILE) ON SUNDAY. ENHANCED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A
STRENGTHENING LLJ (~35 KNOTS), WEAK SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH, AND
850-700MB VORTICITY WILL LEAD TO LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES MAINLY
OVER THE WATERS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID
80S TODAY WILL INCREASE TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ON
SUNDAY THANKS TO STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL LIMIT
LOWS TO THE MID 60S INLAND AND TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
ONCE AGAIN, COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE BEACHES, BAYS,
AND WATERWAYS DURING HIGH TIDE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
WE'RE STILL WITHIN A STRONG PULL FROM THE FULL MOON AND INCREASING
SWELL PERIODS AROUND 7 SECONDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WATER LEVELS TO APPROACH OR REACH THE DUNES.
AN EXTENSION IS LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD
FRONT AS OUR ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SWELL PERIODS INCREASE.
THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, SWIMMERS SHOULD USE
CAUTION IN THE WATERS, ESPECIALLY NEAR PIERS AND JETTIES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONGEST COLD FRONT SO FAR THIS FALL EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
- MEDIUM CHANCE (50 TO 60%) FOR WIND GUSTS PAST 40 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
A POTENT MID-LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO BE EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
MEXICO AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH THE STRONGEST FRONT
WE'VE SEEN SINCE THE SPRING SET TO MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, SUNDAY NIGHT, WE'LL EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND
LOW TO THE WEST. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40MPH OR
EVEN A BIT ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES ON MONDAY,
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE - THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY NARROW AND
QUICK MOVING BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. WHILE MOST OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS WILL SEE SOME RAIN, TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ANYTHING TOO EXCITING WITH AN OVERALL AVERAGE AT OR BELOW 0.5". PWAT
VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2", WHICH IS AROUND 2SD ABOVE NORMAL,
SO FAIRLY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BRIEFLY. WE'LL
DRY OUT QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR SETTLES IN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 80S, DESPITE THE
FRONT, AND WITH THE MID-UPPER FORCING STILL TO OUR WEST, TUESDAY
STILL LOOKS ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AGAIN. THE COOLER
AIR MAKES IT IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A REINFORCING SURGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY NIGHT
AND ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL BE MORE SEASONAL - IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THIS BKN-OVC
CLOUD DECK AROUND 3.5-4.0 KFT LINGERS AROUND THE RIO GRANDE AND
VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION, BREAKING APART AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. SLIGHTLY LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR ARE IN THE FORECAST
OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES,
IMPACTING ALI/VCT. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER VCT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
AT ALI AT THIS TIME. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND
12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WEAKENING AT NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 209 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MEDIUM 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO OVER 25 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WIND
GUSTS COULD REACH GALE FORCE DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. THEREFORE, AT
THE VERY LEAST, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED
DURING THAT TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND DECREASE TO UNDER 15 KNOTS.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND
ALONG THE FRONT ON MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS (OVER 25
KNOTS) IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 83 69 87 73 / 0 10 20 20
VICTORIA 83 65 88 70 / 0 20 50 30
LAREDO 86 67 92 73 / 0 0 0 10
ALICE 86 65 90 72 / 0 0 20 20
ROCKPORT 84 71 85 73 / 0 20 40 30
COTULLA 86 65 91 71 / 0 0 0 30
KINGSVILLE 84 67 89 73 / 0 0 20 20
NAVY CORPUS 80 74 83 76 / 0 20 20 30
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ245-
342>347-442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EMF
LONG TERM....PH
AVIATION...EMF/94
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