267
FXUS64 KCRP 180446
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1046 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
- COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-80%) ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. DESPITE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING, RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLEAK
UNDER 0.50" AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
RATHER QUICKLY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW EVENING. DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET,
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS WITH STRONG WINDS AS THE ONLY THREAT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. THEREFORE, SPC HAS PLACED THAT AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING HIGH
CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND THE BRUSH COUNTRY FROM
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS EXPECTED
TO BE A TOUCH WEAKER, OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING AT THIS
TIME, HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A LOW TO MEDIUM FOR GALE FORCE WIND
GUST OVER THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
THE STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATERS LEVELS ACROSS THE BEACHES OF THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. WITH WATER LEVELS RUNNING ABOUT 1.2-1.4" ABOVE
PREDICTED, WILL CONTINUE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AS WATER LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 2.5 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL DURING
TIMES OF HIGH TIDES. THE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A HIGHER
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
LASTLY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW FROM
MCMULLEN TO BEE COUNTIES. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
BELOW CRITICAL LEVEL ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE BY THEN WHICH WILL HELP HINDER THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER. HOWEVER, ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES, THE ENERGY
RELEASE COMPONENT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50TH-89TH PERCENTILE WHICH
WOULD HELP OVERCOME THE NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAKER WINDS TO
RESULT IN THE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DID NOT ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AT THIS TIME TO
ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO LOOK AT MORE RECENT MODEL DATA AND TRENDS TO
CONFIRM THE DECREASE IN WINDS. IF WINDS DON'T SUBSIDE AS FORECASTED
WITH THIS PACKAGE, THERE WILL BE A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE THAT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- FALL TEMPERATURES FINALLY ARRIVE THIS WEEK.
I COULD HAVE CHANGED THE KEY MESSAGES BUT I FEEL LIKE THIS IS A NICE
WAY TO START OUR LONG TERM DISCUSSION AGAIN. COLD(ER) AIR WILL
FINALLY ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SURGE OF REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL (70S
AND LOW 80S) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN WE'VE BEEN. WHILE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MENTIONED TEMPERATURES
BELOW 40, I WILL NOT. ONLY BECAUSE THAT'S TOO COLD FOR ME--THERE IS
STILL A LOW CHANCE THAT IT COULD HAPPEN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK UP THROUGH WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID-80S BY SATURDAY AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 948 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF A
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THERE IS A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF S TX WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL BY 08Z. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE, POSSIBLY EVEN STRENGTHEN, TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
GUSTS UP OF 30-38KT AT THE SURFACE. THE 40KT PART OF THE LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1700-3000FT WITH THE 50KT LLJ EXPECTED
BETWEEN 3-4KFT. GIVEN THE SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AND
SIMILAR IN DIRECTION, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND ENTER THE COT AREA BETWEEN 10-13Z MONDAY MORNING AND REACHING
THE COASTLINE BY AROUND 17-19Z AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST TO EAST.
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL DECREASE BY 5-15KT, THEN
SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
THROUGH MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING ACROSS COT AND LRD AND EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR CRP AND VCT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD, ALONG AND BRIEFLY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. VCT HAS THE HIGHEST (UP TO 80%) CHANCE OF TSRAS WITH
LRD HAVING THE LOWEST (10-30%) CHANCE. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS
FOR ALL TAF SITES AND INCLUDED SHRAS IN THE PREVAILING GROUP FOR
VCT. RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND THE BAYS FOR WINDS FROM 20 TO 30
KNOTS AND SEAS 7 TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND EVENTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. THERE IS STILL A LOW TO MEDIUM FOR GALE FORCE WIND GUST
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TOMORROW FROM NOON TO 3 PM AND SHIFT THE WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MODERATE FLOW BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 73 86 57 86 / 10 60 0 0
VICTORIA 69 85 50 87 / 30 80 0 0
LAREDO 73 85 54 85 / 10 10 0 0
ALICE 71 88 53 88 / 20 60 0 0
ROCKPORT 72 85 58 85 / 20 80 10 0
COTULLA 69 84 52 86 / 30 50 0 0
KINGSVILLE 72 87 55 87 / 20 60 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 76 83 65 82 / 20 70 10 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ229>231-239>244-342-
343.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ245-342>347-
442-443-447.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ345-442-
443-447.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ231-232-236-
237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ250-255-270-
275.
SHORT TERM...JCP
LONG TERM....LS
AVIATION...TE/81
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page