239
FXUS64 KCRP 180833
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
233 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THE COLD FRONT WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING IS STILL NORTH OF THE BIG
BEND AS OF 2AM, BUT WILL START TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY AS A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.
TIMING ON THE FRONT REACHING SOUTH TEXAS HAS NOT CHANGED TOO
MUCH, WITH ARRIVAL IN THE COTULLA AREA EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 AND
10AM. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING OFFSHORE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH DEEP
MOISTURE, WE ARE SEEING BANDS OF MAINLY WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY.
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOW MUCH RAIN
WE GET AS THE FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH IS QUESTIONABLE. MESO
MODELS ARE NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT ACTIVITY ALONG THE LINE THIS FAR
SOUTH, AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. WE WILL HAVE THE MOISTURE, BUT
LITTLE INSTABILITY DOWN HERE. THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO KICK UP
A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME STORMS, BUT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE
LIMITED TO UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WE'LL
DRY OUR AND CLEAR OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, IN PART DUE TO
THE DRY NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. FLOW ABOVE
THE SURFACE STAYS MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST WHICH WILL ALSO HELP.
HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. TOMORROW LOOKS
SIMILAR FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WE WILL SEE SOME RELIEF THOUGH WITH
THE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. THE MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO COOL
INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW NORTH AND WEST LOCATIONS
COULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S.
WE WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF AN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN TODAY AS RH
VALUES DROP VERY LOW WEST, AND RAIN AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT
ARE NOT LIKELY TO PROVIDE ANY IMPROVEMENT TO THE DRY FUELS. WINDS
WILL BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS, THUS NO RED FLAG WARNING IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
- FALL TEMPERATURES FINALLY ARRIVE THIS WEEK.
- LOW RISK FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE INTO SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FINALLY REDUCING OUR TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS. MODERATE COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURGE WILL
RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITONS OVER THE GULF WATERS LATE
TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE
LOW TO MID 50S BY WED MORNING, THEN DIP INTO THE 40S AREA WIDE BY
THU MORNING. SOME UPPER 30S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAINS AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD. IF THIS
PANS OUT, THE LAST TIME WE SAW 30S FOR LOWS IN OUR CWA WAS ON FEB
19, 2024 (275 DAYS AGO). EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S UNDER
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL ALSO BE VERY LOW AVERAGING IN THE TEENS AND 20S AREA WIDE MUCH
OF THE WEEK. GIVEN THE DRY FUELS, CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WED WHEN GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20 MPH. A WARM
UP WILL COMMENCE BY NEXT WEEKEND WHEN MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BACK IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 948 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF A
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THERE IS A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF S TX WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL BY 08Z. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE, POSSIBLY EVEN STRENGTHEN, TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
GUSTS UP OF 30-38KT AT THE SURFACE. THE 40KT PART OF THE LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1700-3000FT WITH THE 50KT LLJ EXPECTED
BETWEEN 3-4KFT. GIVEN THE SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AND
SIMILAR IN DIRECTION, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND ENTER THE COT AREA BETWEEN 10-13Z MONDAY MORNING AND REACHING
THE COASTLINE BY AROUND 17-19Z AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST TO EAST.
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL DECREASE BY 5-15KT, THEN
SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
THROUGH MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING ACROSS COT AND LRD AND EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR CRP AND VCT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD, ALONG AND BRIEFLY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. VCT HAS THE HIGHEST (UP TO 80%) CHANCE OF TSRAS WITH
LRD HAVING THE LOWEST (10-30%) CHANCE. HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS
FOR ALL TAF SITES AND INCLUDED SHRAS IN THE PREVAILING GROUP FOR
VCT. RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. WINDS WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN WEAK OR WEAK TO MODERATE THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THURSDAY BECOMING WEAK ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 86 57 85 56 / 60 0 0 0
VICTORIA 84 51 86 49 / 70 0 0 0
LAREDO 85 53 86 54 / 20 0 0 0
ALICE 86 53 88 52 / 50 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 84 60 84 55 / 70 0 0 0
COTULLA 83 51 86 50 / 40 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 86 56 86 54 / 50 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 83 65 82 62 / 60 10 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TXZ229>231-
239>244-342-343.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ245-
342>347-442-443-447.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ345-442-443-
447.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ231-
232-236-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ250-255-
270-275.
SHORT TERM...PH/83
LONG TERM....JM/75
AVIATION...TE
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