574
FXUS64 KCRP 190445
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1045 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 633 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS HAVE DROPPED BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS, THEREFORE THE SCA WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. SEAS ARE
STILL RUNNING AROUND 6 FEET, THUS, WENT WITH SCEC FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS CONTINUE TO RUN
7-8 FEET AND WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SUBSIDE. THE SCA FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 3 AM CST.
AS FOR THE RIP CURRENT RISK, ALLOWED THE HIGH RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT TO EXPIRE DUE TO WINDS WEAKENING AND SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST, WHICH IS LESS CONDUCIVE FOR RIP CURRENTS, BUT SWELLS
MAINTAIN A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TONIGHT.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY
MORNING. WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE LESS LIKELY DURING THE HIGH TIDES ON
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE P-ETSS ALSO SHOWS A DOWNWARD TREND OF
TIDE LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY DOES NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY'S HIGH
TIDES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.
- COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN CLOSELY MONITORED IS NOW MOVING
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DRIVE
DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION, SUPPORTING BANDS OF MAINLY WEAK SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY. THIS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO
THE REGION LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES AND A NOTABLE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WERE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS, THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT
LOWS. MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 50S, WITH A FEW
NORTHERN AND WESTERN LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY SEEING TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S. TOMORROW'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY, REACHING THE LOW TO MID-80S, BEFORE COLDER AIR
ADVECTION BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED TOMORROW NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOWS IN THE 50S.
THE STRONG WINDS EARLIER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ALONG AREA BEACHES, WITH
READINGS APPROXIMATELY 1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING,
AS WATER LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH 2.5 FEET ABOVE MSL
DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, PROBABILITIES OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL DECREASE AS WATER WILL NOW BE PUSHED AWAY FROM THE
SHORELINE. A NEW ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED IN THE SHORT-
TERM.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, AS THE SECOND FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION,
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN, LEADING TO THE
RESURGENCE OF STRONGER, BREEZY WINDS. THIS FRONT IS PROJECTED TO
BE DIRECTLY TO OUR NORTH AT THE TAIL-END OF THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- FALL TEMPERATURES FINALLY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY!
- LOW RISK FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO SOUTH TEXAS, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND OVER THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY. THE BEST NEWS IS THAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY, FINALLY, MOVE INTO THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE
MID-70S CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS
IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS. WEDNESDAY COULD EVEN SEE
SOME LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS.
MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LOW, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN
THE TEENS OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL
PLAINS. THIS, COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS COULD LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER DANGER FOR WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY MAY ALSO HAVE AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER SO CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER
THAN IT IS FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
STARTING FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
CLOUDS FROM THE VCT AREA TO ALI AND CRP ARE AT VFR LEVELS AND WILL
BECOME SCATTERED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THEN MOVE OUT
LEAVING CLEAR SKIES BEHIND. THUS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS S TX WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VCT.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE VCT AREA IN RESPONSE TO WET
SOILS FROM EARLIER RAIN, LINGERING HIGHER DEWPOINTS, LIGHT WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT. THE FOG WILL LEAD TO A MIX OF MVFR AND
IFR VSBYS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWESTERLY AROUND
5-10KT TUESDAY. BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD, REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE/COLDER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO S TX LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH WIND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN CLOSELY MONITORED IS NOW MOVING
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND
SHOULD REACH THE COAST AND AREA WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, REACHING WEAK TO
MODERATE LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THURSDAY BECOMING WEAK ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 56 86 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 49 86 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 54 85 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 51 87 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 58 84 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 50 86 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 54 87 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 64 83 62 74 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR TXZ245-342>347-
442-443-447.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ270-275.
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....LS
AVIATION...TE/81
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