376
FXUS64 KCRP 190900
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
300 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE DRIER AIR BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS HAD DIFFICULTY
PUSHING OFFSHORE, WITH DEWPOINTS ALONG THE COAST STILL HOVERING
AROUND 60. FOG IS OCCURRING AT VCT WHERE MOISTURE STILL LINGERS,
BUT NO FOG FOR THE REST OF SOUTH TEXAS. EXPECT THE DRIER AIR TO BE
ABLE TO PUSH OFFSHORE YET THIS MORNING LEAVING DRY BUT WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
80S ONCE AGAIN BEFORE THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.
THE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE YESTERDAY'S FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
CLEANLY PAST OUR AREA TOMORROW AND WILL USHER IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED COOLER AIRMASS. TIMING OF THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT
ON LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, BUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND
40S, EXPECT LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, DESPITE THE
AIRMASS CHANGE NOT COMING UNTIL THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...WHICH IS
FINALLY AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS COMBINED
WITH LOW RH VALUES AND DRY FUELS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
FIRE CONCERN.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
- FALL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
- MEDIUM RISK FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THURSDAY
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING IN WINDS. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL LEAD TO THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S (NORTH), 50S (COAST) AND 40S
(ELSEWHERE). WILL TREND TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE NBM. EXPECT
CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. A WARMUP
COMMENCES THIS WEEKEND AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO INTRUDE OVER
SOUTH TEXAS WITH A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW, INDUCING AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW
WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID
WEEK. JURY IS STILL OUT ON THE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING.
THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE TRENDING COOLER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH BEFORE THE HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE WARMER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
CLOUDS FROM THE VCT AREA TO ALI AND CRP ARE AT VFR LEVELS AND WILL
BECOME SCATTERED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THEN MOVE OUT
LEAVING CLEAR SKIES BEHIND. THUS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS S TX WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VCT.
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE VCT AREA IN RESPONSE TO WET
SOILS FROM EARLIER RAIN, LINGERING HIGHER DEWPOINTS, LIGHT WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT. THE FOG WILL LEAD TO A MIX OF MVFR AND
IFR VSBYS THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWESTERLY AROUND
5-10KT TUESDAY. BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD, REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE/COLDER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO S TX LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH WIND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 157 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE
REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THURSDAY BECOMING WEAK ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 86 58 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 87 51 75 36 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 86 54 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 89 53 78 40 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 86 57 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 87 51 76 41 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 87 56 77 42 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 83 63 74 57 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
TXZ245-342>347-442-443-447.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PH/83
LONG TERM....JM/75
AVIATION...TE
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