538
FXUS64 KCRP 191942
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
142 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOLER CONDITIONS FINALLY MAKE IT TO SOUTH TEXAS
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THINGS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET FOR SOUTH TEXAS OVER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE SOUTH INTO
THE AREA, REACHING THE COAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL TURN
GENERALLY NORTH AND BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 34 MPH
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DRY AIR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE AS
WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S, WITH AREAS
OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL FINALLY BE COOLER, STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AS STRANGE AS IT IS TO SAY THIS, THOSE OF YOU WITH LIVESTOCK AND
OUTDOOR PETS WILL NEED TO MAKE SURE THEY HAVE SOMEWHERE WARM TO
HIDE OUT AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE FIRST NIGHT OF THE SEASON
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 40S TO THE MID 30S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- FALL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
- MEDIUM RISK FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THURSDAY
COOL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO OOZE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE COOL, HIGH
PRESSURE AIR, THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE LOW, SO WITH THE DRY AIR
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION OUR BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE FIRE
DANGER. WHILE THE WINDS WON'T BE A FACTOR (WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 5 MPH), THE FINE DEAD FUELS (DRY GRASSES) AND THE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (15-25% OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS EXCEPT THE
COASTAL BEND (30-45%), THE FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST
AREA (MCMULLEN TO VICTORIA) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING LOOK
TO BE IN THE MID 40S, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT
TEMPERATURES COULD GET BELOW 35°F IN PARTS OF ARANSAS AND REFUGIO
COUNTIES. HOWEVER, AS WE PROGRESS INTO FRIDAY, THE WARMUP COMMENCES
AND LASTS INTO THIS WEEKEND AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER SOUTH TEXAS. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS AND STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTH
TEXAS AS A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, PULLING
THE GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY, FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 30% TO AROUND 60% AT THE COASTAL BEND. WHILE WINDS ONSHORE
WON'T BE MUCH STRONGER DURING THAT TIME, WINDS INCREASE OVER THE
NEAR AND OFF SHORE WATERS SO THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED AFTER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN WINDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT GENERALLY TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND GUST TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS. FOR NOW, HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF WIND SHEAR OUT
OF THE TAFS AS WE EXPECT WINDS WILL MIX DOWN WELL ENOUGH TO LIMIT
THIS, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR LLWS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 110 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY
BECOMING WEAK ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND (SUNDAY), SO THAT SMALL CRAFT
MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 57 74 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 51 74 36 76 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 52 75 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 53 77 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 58 75 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 51 75 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 54 76 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 63 73 58 72 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ231-
232-236-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ250-255-270-275.
SHORT TERM...LS/77
LONG TERM....JSL/86
AVIATION...LS
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