542
FXUS64 KCRP 201129
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
529 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
WINDS WILL START PICKING UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE/COOLER TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. THE
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT YIELDING SOME CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN 30S/40S. A FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED
HOWEVER. CONTINUED PLEASANT ON THURSDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES,
SEASONAL TEMPS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
BE SURE TO ENJOY OUR FEW DAYS OF FALL AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS
BECAUSE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WE'RE TRENDING BACK UP IN
BOTH TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE. SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP BY FRIDAY, BUT ISN'T FULLY IN PLACE UNTIL SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS BY TO THE NORTH AND THEN SETTLES IN TO OUR EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TEMPERATURES INCREASE ABOUT 5 DEGREES EACH DAY,
AND BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, HIGHS ARE BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. DEWPOINTS SHOULDN'T RETURN TO THEIR
SUMMER VALUES, BUT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY. LOW TEMPERATURES OF
COURSE WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE, BUT WE'LL STAY SEASONAL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
AFTER A VERY QUIET PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE'LL BE
WATCHING A MORE ACTIVE MID-LEVEL PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. WE'VE SEEN SOME INCONSISTENCIES IN TERMS OF FRONTS, BUT THERE
IS POTENTIAL TO BE SEEING OUR NEXT FRONT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. DEEP
MOISTURE AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIMITED, WHICH MEANS RAIN CHANCES ARE
NOT LOOKING PROMISING, BUT IT'S STILL A WEEK AWAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SURGING INTO SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY. STRONG WINDS OF 45 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE INVERSION
WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL 14Z. THEN
EXPECT GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WIND WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. THEN WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 156 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE AREA. STRONG WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THURSDAY AND WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
ONSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 156 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VERY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15-25% FROM THE BRUSH COUNTRY TO
THE COASTAL BEND. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO SOUTH TEXAS. FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 20
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE CRITICALLY DRY FUELS, THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY. THE
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER COULD PERSIST THURSDAY AS WELL GIVEN THE
VERY DRY FUELS (HIGH ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT ERC) IN THE
70TH-90TH PERCENTILE. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL STILL BE LOW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BE ABOVE 30% FROM SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 75 46 74 50 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 74 37 75 43 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 76 44 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 77 41 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 77 50 73 53 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 76 40 75 47 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 77 44 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 74 58 71 60 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ231-232-
236-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ250-255-
270-275.
SHORT TERM...JM/75
LONG TERM....PH/83
AVIATION...JM/75
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