652
FXUS64 KCRP 211142
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
542 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
PICTURE PERFECT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH CLEAR SKIES, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL NOSE INTO THE
REGION DURING THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD MAINTAINING THE DRY AND
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN. IN FACT PWAT VALUES WILL HOVER AROUND 0.25"
WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. ALTHOUGH FUEL
MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE LOW, THE LIGHT
AND VARAIBLE WINDS, WILL LIMIT THE FIRE DANGER. WE'LL SEE MAX
TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID 70S. FRIDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES
WARMER WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY DUE TO THE WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT BUT THERE IS AN
INCREASING RISK FOR FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN
THE INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A QUIET PATTERN PERSISTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE RIDGING WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING A RETURN TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BOTH
INCREASE MOISTURE AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE 10+
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY TO POSSIBLY
GET A FRONT THROUGH. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A SURFACE
FRONT COME THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE MID-LEVEL
PATTERNS ARE VERY DIFFERENT. ON THURSDAY, FOR INSTANCE, THE GFS HAS
A ZONAL PATTERN WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS TROUGHING WEST AND RIDGING
EAST AND THE CANADIAN IS IN AN OPPOSITE PHASE AS THE EC. LOOKS LIKE
THE PATTERN SHOULD GET MORE ACTIVE ANYWAY, BUT DETAILS ARE NOTHING
TO KEY IN ON YET.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
PERFECT FLYING WEATHER TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER SOUTH
TEXAS. INCLUDED ONE LINE VFR TAFS TODAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST THU NOV 21 2024
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ONSHORE
FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BECOMING
MODERATE AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS MONDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 74 48 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
VICTORIA 75 41 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 76 49 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALICE 77 45 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 74 53 77 61 / 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 75 46 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 76 46 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 71 60 74 66 / 0 0 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JM/75
LONG TERM....PH/83
AVIATION...JM/75
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