696
FXUS64 KCRP 151002
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
402 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW AT
THE LOWER LEVELS. THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
A WARMER AIRMASS LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS 10-
12 WITH LOWS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) THROUGH MONDAY. DECIDED TO
EXTEND THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SWELL
PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 8 SECONDS. PLEASE USE CAUTION
IF HEADING TO AREA BEACHES ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
WITH THE FRONT STALLED OUT IN NORTH TEXAS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
AND MOISTURE PERSISTING IN THE AREA, A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) WILL
EXIST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE ISOLATED ACROSS
THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THOUGH IT WILL BE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS BACK INTO 30S AND 40S. A LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT DOES PUSH THROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST IN THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, TO BEGIN THE WEEK
TEMPERATURES WISE EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2024
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH A MIXTURE OF MOSTLY MVFR TO IFR
LEVELS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL, MAINLY AT ALI/VCT/COT SITES CLOSER TO DAYBREAK, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH IN ALI TO BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS
AT THIS TIME. POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY MORNING OR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR
LEVELS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF THE SE TO S SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT AROUND 20
KNOTS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
STRENGTHENING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING TO UNDER 15
KNOTS MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE SLIM (LESS THAN
5%) WITH LOW END RAIN CHANCES (10-15%) CREEPING INTO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS FROM 20-60 NM MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WEAK TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND BECOME
STRONG BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 80 67 80 63 / 10 0 0 10
VICTORIA 81 66 81 60 / 10 0 10 10
LAREDO 83 67 82 66 / 0 0 0 20
ALICE 81 65 82 60 / 10 0 10 10
ROCKPORT 75 66 77 63 / 10 0 0 10
COTULLA 81 66 80 64 / 10 0 10 30
KINGSVILLE 81 66 80 62 / 10 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 75 69 75 66 / 0 0 0 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....NP/92
AVIATION...ANM/88
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