567
FXUS64 KCRP 151845
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1245 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW AT
THE LOWER LEVELS. THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
A WARMER AIRMASS LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS 10-
12 WITH LOWS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) THROUGH MONDAY. DECIDED TO
EXTEND THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TONIGHT AS SWELL
PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 8 SECONDS. PLEASE USE CAUTION
IF HEADING TO AREA BEACHES ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
WITH THE FRONT STALLED OUT IN NORTH TEXAS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
AND MOISTURE PERSISTING IN THE AREA, A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) WILL
EXIST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE ISOLATED ACROSS
THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THOUGH IT WILL BE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS BACK INTO 30S AND 40S. A LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT DOES PUSH THROUGH. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST IN THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, TO BEGIN THE WEEK
TEMPERATURES WISE EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
TODAY SEEMS TO BE EVOLVING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH A SLUG OF
MOISTURE THAT IS MOVING UP THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS, AND WITH THE
HEATING FROM THE SUN, IS PRODUCING CU/STRATOCU OVER MOST OF THE
REGION LEAVING MVFR/VFR CIGS. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THIS IS
PROBABLY THE CASE AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE VFR BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON, MVFR OVERNIGHT, IFR/MVFR CIGS BY MONDAY MORNING,
AND THEN IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN
ISSUE EACH MORNING NEAR ALI, AND WHILE NOT CURRENTLY IN THE TAF
THERE, VLIFR IS A POSSIBILITY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
STRENGTHENING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING TO UNDER 15
KNOTS MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE SLIM (LESS THAN
5%) WITH LOW END RAIN CHANCES (10-15%) CREEPING INTO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS FROM 20-60 NM MONDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WEAK TO MODERATE
SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND BECOME
STRONG BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 66 80 63 80 / 0 0 10 10
VICTORIA 63 81 60 80 / 0 10 10 10
LAREDO 68 82 66 83 / 0 10 10 10
ALICE 64 82 60 82 / 0 0 10 10
ROCKPORT 64 77 63 75 / 10 0 10 10
COTULLA 67 80 64 82 / 10 10 20 20
KINGSVILLE 65 80 62 80 / 0 0 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 68 75 66 74 / 0 0 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....NP/92
AVIATION...JSL/86
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