955
FXUS64 KCRP 152029
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
229 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
CLOUD COVER IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY, AS IT LOOKS MOSTLY LIKE CU OUT WEST VS. THE STRATOCU OVER
THE COASTAL BEND AND PART OF THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH 1.25"+ PWAT AIR INTO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY EAST
OF TX-16, WHERE THE STRATOCU CONTINUES. WITH THE 500 MB ZONAL FLOW
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY, NOT SURE THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A
CHANGE FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT PATTERN WON'T CHANGE
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION (SEE LONG TERM
SECTION). SO BASED ON THE PATTERN, THINKING THAT WE ARE GOING TO GO
THROUGH ANOTHER 24 HOUR ROUND OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, LIGHT RAIN
THAT MOVES FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS AND
THE EASTERN PART OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY. WHICH WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EARLY EVENING, EVEN ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING, BUT THEN LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG (ESPECIALLY NEAR ALI) WILL FORM BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AND
PRODUCE MORE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ECMWF AND ARW SUPPORT THIS IDEA,
AND SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN ON THAT LINE THE LAST FEW DAYS, I'M
THINKING THAT I'LL HEDGE THE FORECAST TOWARD THAT SOLUTION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
THE START OF THE LONG TERM TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S (10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
(10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE OVER THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AND ALLOW FOR A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
AN AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS THE EARLIEST GUIDANCE WITH FROPA
OCCURRING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WHEREAS THE NAM/GFS/CMC ARE WELL
ALIGNED WITH FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORTUNATELY, THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY BRING OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL REINFORCING SURGES
OF HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RIDGING AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT, LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
TODAY SEEMS TO BE EVOLVING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH A SLUG OF
MOISTURE THAT IS MOVING UP THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS, AND WITH THE
HEATING FROM THE SUN, IS PRODUCING CU/STRATOCU OVER MOST OF THE
REGION LEAVING MVFR/VFR CIGS. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THIS IS
PROBABLY THE CASE AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE VFR BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON, MVFR OVERNIGHT, IFR/MVFR CIGS BY MONDAY MORNING,
AND THEN IMPROVING THROUGH THE DAY. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN
ISSUE EACH MORNING NEAR ALI, AND WHILE NOT CURRENTLY IN THE TAF
THERE, VLIFR IS A POSSIBILITY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 117 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
GENERALLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THERE IS A LOW 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR WINDS OF AT
LEAST 20 KNOTS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A LOW 20
TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 66 80 63 80 / 0 0 10 10
VICTORIA 63 81 60 80 / 0 10 10 10
LAREDO 68 82 66 83 / 0 10 10 10
ALICE 64 82 60 82 / 0 0 10 10
ROCKPORT 64 77 63 75 / 10 0 10 10
COTULLA 67 80 64 82 / 10 10 20 20
KINGSVILLE 65 80 62 80 / 0 0 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 68 75 66 74 / 0 0 10 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....EMF/94
AVIATION...JSL/86
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