346
FXUS64 KCRP 162051
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
251 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
SO THE SONG (FORECAST) REMAINS THE SAME PROBABLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHEN THEN NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE IS MORE CU OUTSIDE
THAN THERE WAS YESTERDAY, WITH MUCH LESS STRATOCU. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS LOOKS LOW FOR THE REST OF TODAY. TONIGHT, THE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, BEFORE CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER,
THAT SETS UP THE FORMATION FOR RADIATION FOG AS LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES HELP TO COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW THE DEWPOINT, AND
PRODUCE AREAS OF DENSE FOG, MAINLY IN THE WESTERN COASTAL PLAINS,
AND THE EASTERN PART OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY, AND UP INTO THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS (ALI AND VCT AND PLACES BETWEEN). THE TAIL OF THE SFC
TROUGH/DRY LINE THAT IS IN THE BIG BEND REGION WILL MOVE INTO THE
HILL COUNTRY/RIO GRANDE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
SFC TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WHICH IS
CONNECTED TO THE COLD FRONT IN EAST TEXAS WILL HELP GIVE A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A LOW (20%) CHANCE OF UNBENEFICIAL
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS EARLY AS MID-LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BE
ENTIRELY THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND LOWS FROM THE 40S TO MID 50S. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE SE CONUS, WARMING
TEMPERATURES BACK UP ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
AFTER THE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE COASTAL BEND THIS MORNING, CLOUDS
HAVE MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WITH THE CLOUDS LOOKING MORE CU
THAN STRATOCU TODAY. THE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE DAY
WITH SOME TEMPO MVFR UNTIL SUNSET, WHEN THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION AGAIN, BEFORE CLEARING OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND LOTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, FOG WILL AN ISSUE AT VCT AND ALI AS EACH HAVE
FALLEN AROUND VLIFR THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. CRP MAY GET IN ON THIS,
BUT AT THIS POINT ONLY HAVE MVFR VSBYS FOR CRP. THEN AFTER 14Z,
VSBYS AND SKIES WILL CLEAR A BIT BEFORE IT ALL STARTS AGAIN AROUND
18Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
EXPECT WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP TONIGHT, AND PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH THE FLOW
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS, IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 80 63 78 / 0 0 0 10
VICTORIA 62 81 63 77 / 0 10 0 20
LAREDO 66 82 65 80 / 20 10 0 20
ALICE 61 81 62 80 / 0 10 0 20
ROCKPORT 63 76 64 74 / 0 10 0 10
COTULLA 64 82 64 78 / 30 10 0 20
KINGSVILLE 62 81 62 80 / 0 10 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 67 75 65 73 / 10 10 0 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....EMF/94
AVIATION...JSL/86
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