217
FXUS64 KCRP 170444
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1044 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
SO THE SONG (FORECAST) REMAINS THE SAME PROBABLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHEN THEN NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE IS MORE CU OUTSIDE
THAN THERE WAS YESTERDAY, WITH MUCH LESS STRATOCU. THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS LOOKS LOW FOR THE REST OF TODAY. TONIGHT, THE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, BEFORE CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER,
THAT SETS UP THE FORMATION FOR RADIATION FOG AS LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES HELP TO COOL TEMPERATURES TO BELOW THE DEWPOINT, AND
PRODUCE AREAS OF DENSE FOG, MAINLY IN THE WESTERN COASTAL PLAINS,
AND THE EASTERN PART OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY, AND UP INTO THE VICTORIA
CROSSROADS (ALI AND VCT AND PLACES BETWEEN). THE TAIL OF THE SFC
TROUGH/DRY LINE THAT IS IN THE BIG BEND REGION WILL MOVE INTO THE
HILL COUNTRY/RIO GRANDE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
SFC TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WHICH IS
CONNECTED TO THE COLD FRONT IN EAST TEXAS WILL HELP GIVE A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
ABOVE-NORMAL MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN A LOW (20%) CHANCE OF UNBENEFICIAL
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AS EARLY AS MID-LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BE
ENTIRELY THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND LOWS FROM THE 40S TO MID 50S. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE SE CONUS, WARMING
TEMPERATURES BACK UP ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS AVIATION PACKAGE. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS AREA TERMINALS FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS, BEFORE DETERIORATING TO GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT. TEMPORARY LIFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED AT ALI/VCT
SITES BETWEEN 09-15Z TUESDAY PRIMARILY DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CLOSER TO NOON ON TUESDAY, REMAINING AT
THESE LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE S TO SE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
EXPECT WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP TONIGHT, AND PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH THE FLOW
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS, IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 65 80 63 80 / 0 0 0 10
VICTORIA 62 81 60 78 / 0 10 0 20
LAREDO 67 82 64 79 / 20 10 0 20
ALICE 61 82 60 81 / 0 10 0 20
ROCKPORT 64 76 63 77 / 0 10 0 10
COTULLA 66 82 63 77 / 30 10 0 20
KINGSVILLE 62 81 61 80 / 0 10 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 67 75 66 75 / 10 10 0 10
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....EMF/94
AVIATION...ANM/88
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