869
FXUS64 KCRP 172039
AFDCRP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
239 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGE:
- MEDIUM (50-60%) CHANCE OF DENSE FOG OVER MAJORITY OF INLAND
AREAS. DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3-9 AM WEDNESDAY.
CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN IDEAL DENSE FOG
ENVIRONMENT OVER INLAND AREAS. HREF CONTAINS A MEDIUM 50-60%
CHANCE OF LESS THAN 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY FROM INLAND COUNTIES OUT
WEST TOWARDS THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. THEREFORE, A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 3-9 AM WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF EXPANSION OUT WEST AND CLOSER TOWARDS THE COAST.
CAM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND PASSING COMPLETELY THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW FOR LOW (20%) RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG THE FRONT (30-40%) IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH.
RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR
SKIES, OFFSHORE FLOW, AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE LOW 40S OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAINS TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AFTER WEDNESDAY'S COLD FRONT THINGS WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AS WE LOOK FORWARD TO
AROUND A 10 DEGREE DROP FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
30S OUT WEST TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. THEN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER STARTING THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OUR CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AS THE 500MB LEVEL FEATURES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
THURSDAY REBOUND TO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 40S TO 50S LATE THIS WEEK INCREASING TO THE MID
50S TO 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST FROM THE NUECES ISLANDS TO EAST OF US-281. ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOR VCSH TO BE INCLUDED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER CRP. OTHERWISE, AFTER A MORNING LIFR/IFR EVENT, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT AFTER 06Z, ANOTHER LIFR/IFR
CEILING AND FOG EVENT WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS.
EXPECT LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 14Z BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PACKAGE EAST TO WEST.
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON LIFR CEILINGS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE COAST TO
IMPACT CRP BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL TURN WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A LOW LESS THAN 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
CORPUS CHRISTI 65 80 48 68 / 0 40 0 0
VICTORIA 62 78 42 68 / 0 40 0 0
LAREDO 66 78 50 69 / 0 30 10 0
ALICE 63 81 47 68 / 0 40 0 0
ROCKPORT 66 76 49 66 / 0 30 0 0
COTULLA 64 76 45 69 / 0 30 0 0
KINGSVILLE 63 81 48 69 / 0 40 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 67 75 52 65 / 0 30 0 0
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ230>234-240>244-246-247-347.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EMF/94
LONG TERM....BF/80
AVIATION...EMF/94
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